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Aéropostale, Inc Message Board

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  • o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 11, 2013 5:25 PM Flag

    Opens below $10 FRiday hits all time low $9

    Wrong again jonathan. Tsk, tsk.

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    • Oh no, you give me a "tsk, tsk"?!... Well, even though the stockprice didn't collapse to $10, it should have. The company's earnings are falling, and the Holiday Shopping Season turned out to be especially poor for ARO. In Q1 it earned $.13, vs. $.20 last year's first quarter, it earned $.00 vs. $.04 last year, and in Q3 it earned $.31 versus the same last year. For Q4 (the quarter containing Black Friday and Christmas) earnings were expected to be $.36-.41, but now the CEO revised those earnings down to $.20-.24.

      So, .13+0+.31+.22(expected)=$.66, and if we put a P/E ratio of 12 (the company's earnings keep falling, so this is a pretty fair multiple) we get a 12 x $.66 = $7.92. Also, they have a lot of cash on hand on their balance sheet ($2.36 per share), so we get a stock price value worth (7.92+2.36=$10.28). That's why I feel this stock is worth a little over ten bucks. If people want to keep buying this stock at $13.00.... They can go right ahead and do that, but this company is not worth $1 billion based on those earnings numbers.

      • 2 Replies to jonathan.loewer
      • Yes, I was wrong on my Radioshack call. I'll admit when I am wrong. I've been on these message boards for 2 years... I can't get them all right. How about American Eagle and Terex though. I've been posting my longterm gains there for 2 years and 1 1/2 years respectively. Well, of course not, you're trying to discredit me because I am bearish on your trade, so why bring up any of my winners?

        Anyway, getting back on topic, I used the word "if" only twice in that post and for the P/E ratio I could have just as easily said "we should use a P/E ratio of 12" instead of "if we use a P/E ratio of 12" because most other retailers (which are all doing better than ARO) also have a P/E of 12. The other time I used "if" was when I was refering to people buying this stock at $13+, well, I could have been more direct and said "There's no reason to buy this stock at $13 based on those fundamentals and metrics.

        That's better!

      • If, if, if - seems to be a favorite word of yours, huh?

        If grandma had balls, we'd call her grandpa.

        Again, I see how well your numbers game worked when you predicted RSH going up from $17, yet today it fights to hold $2.

        Keep playing with your numbers.

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