The potential exists to use wind and solar
resources to produce more than 15 times the amount of hydrogen needed to displace the
petroleum used by light duty vehicles in 2040.
Denmark consumes 32 billion KWH of electricity annually. The US consumes 3,900 billion KWH annually.
That means that for every windmill Denmark installs it has 120 times the impact on the electrical generation percentage as the US.
Maybe this is why Denmark has reached the 20% level and the US hasn't.
So h20...are you still disappointed in the US? I still don't think you have a grasp on how big the US economy is and how much effort it takes to make a significant dent in the existing economic infrastructure...
Looks like Dave better plan on moving to Denmark. From your article it appears they've already achieved the mark of getting 20% of their electricity from wind.
So Dave...are you "impressed" with Denmark?
Thanks for crunching numbers for a wind expansion program.Many H2 touts feel that the news of one wind mill erection solves their problem of producing H2.It would take a pipe dreamer to expect that wind generation could actually be expanded to provide 20% of our electricity within 10 or 11 years. Even lowering the expansion rate of wind power to mathematical meet a 20% capacity by 2036 presents unrealistic attainable goals.
Here is another side of wind generation expansion that should bring reality to the table.
Calculate how many 2 megawatt turbines would be required to replace a 1000MW coal fired plant that supplies electricity to the grid.. Then calculate how many 2 megawatt turbines to replace a 1000MW nuclear plant that supplies electricity to the grid.
Assumptions from reliable sources to be used.
1.Capacity factor for wind is 27%.For coal 72.6%.Nuclear 90%
Other assumptions to be made.
1.The coal fired and the nuclear plant are located at "anywhere" in the United States. The wind is uniform in all 50 States so wind variation is not a factor when replacing the coal or nuclear plant with wind turbines.
Your arguement to calculate is a good one, but the assumptions are quite extraordinary and probably should be adjusted somewhat...
A wind power growth rate of 100% per annum is impossible from the first year alone. (It's that 2 to the nth power thing...). In your case wind would reach 20% in just ~6 years and exceed current world generation capacity in just ~11 years!
Starting from 2004 published numbers for total US electrical (3,953,407 GWH) and wind generated electrical (14,153 GWH) power and using a long term US electrical growth average of 1.3% per annum and a "Nirvanese granddaddy of a Manhattan Project" long term growth rate for wind at 15% per year...wind would reach 20% of total capacity in ~2036 or ~30 years from now.
Bear in mind that this would require installing ~500 - 2 megawatt windmills next year alone. And in 2035 we would have to install ~31,000 - 2 megawatt windmills to reach our goal in 2036!!!
Heady numbers. And your are right...these do not include new electricity for the electrolysis of water for hydrogen generation, just substituting fossil fuel generated electricity with wind generated electricity...
<<"The fastest growing source of generation has been wind power. In May 2006, wind generation increased by 43.2 percent compared to May 2005. Year-to-date net generation from wind was up 57.9 percent. However, wind still constitutes a small share of total generation (0.6 percent of the total, year-to-date."
Do calculations to determine how many years it will take before wind power would produce 20% of the electricity consumed in the United States.
Assumptions you can make.
!.Use the small share of total generation that wind has for 2006 as a starting point. Assume you can double that production each and every year until the 20% generation point is reached.
2. Take into consideration that the sum total of all electoral generation is increasing yearly to meet future demands. Assume a modest 30% growth in electricity demands over the next 25 years in the United States.Leave out the extra generation growth that a Hydrogen Economy would require.
3.Ignore factors such as capacity factors for wind generation. Assume wind conditions are uniform throughout the 50 states.>>
If one assumes that wind continues to grow at 43.2% a year, even if demand grows at 2% a year it would take less than 11 years for wind to get to 20% of our total electric generation:
(1.432 - 1.02) ^ 11 * .6% = 26.7%