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LTC Properties Inc. Message Board

  • horneyranch horneyranch Sep 27, 2000 9:16 PM Flag

    ferdie what you are really saying

    is that mgt of ltc has been dishonest with its
    shareholders and held back material information from them,
    which would be a clear violation of the law; what
    evidence to you have to support such a serious
    charge?????????????????????? speak up, i cant hear you!!!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • No, I am not suggesting that there is
      misinformation or violations of law.

      BAC may simply not
      like the way LTC is using its LC and wants to handcuff
      LTC as to the use of drawn funds. It may want
      conversion to a term loan so that LTC does not have free run
      of the LC balance over the facility period.

      I do think that when you recast LTC's balance sheet
      to FMV that its NAV is adjusted to a point that may
      make the banks very uncomfortable.

      The "story"
      I suggest has nothing to do with dishonesty or
      holding back material information or violations of law.
      The story is about deterioration of value of this
      REIT. The market values stock ahead of events and as I
      stated earlier my own recast of the balance sheet on a
      liquidation basis w/20% discount to cost for ppty sales got
      me to around $5.29 so LTC selling at $3 is not a
      surprise to me.

      Can LTC work this out? Not w/o the
      ability to grow and that is what BAC is taking away from
      LTC....the ability to grow their way to a better operator

      In past cycles the weak healthcare REITs
      would be gobbled up by stronger REITs. Not this time.
      There are so many good ppties for sale but it is a
      buyers market in terms of purchasing but the biggest
      safest healthcare REITs are doing no material buying in
      this cycle and in fact HCP, HR, and NHP have been
      limiting themselves to self-developed stuff right now. The
      PPS crisis has made all parties super gunshy. I never
      would have thought that HCP would continue to sit still
      w/o taking advantage of some of the opportunities out
      there to this point. They have plenty of room on their
      LC AND the ability to raise capital.

      In the
      end the LTC story may be about having to do a refi at
      the worst possible moment in time.

      • 2 Replies to ferdiefor
      • You can get any number you want with the right
        assumptions, of course. Here are mine:

        0.80*445M book = 356M
        Mortgages: 0.80*125M book =
        REMICs: 0.50*96M book = 48M
        Other assets: 52M book -
        30M allowance = 22M

        Total assets:
        Total liabs: 310M
        Pfd stock: 165M
        Note rec'v from
        stockholders: 10M
        Common Equity: 41M or

        The 80% for owned properties and mortgages is based
        on MT's experience. The 50% for REMICs is a guess,
        but the way they're leveraged the discount needs to
        be more than 20%. The $52M in "other assets"
        includes a $20M loan to LTC Healthcare that is almost
        certainly worthless. I took an additional $10M allowance on
        general principle.

        Liquidation value is not
        completely relevant since total liquidation will not occur.
        Still, I'd like to hear comments on these

        PS. Good discussions here the last 24 hours.

      • << I stated
        earlier my own recast of
        balance sheet on a liquidation
        basis w/20%
        discount to cost for
        ppty sales got me to around
        so LTC selling at $3 is not a
        surprise to

        The problem here is the REMICs which represent the
        bottom 25% of the underlying assets. If the underlying
        assets are discounted 20% then the REMICs lose 80% of
        their value. Therefore FMV is probably closer to $3
        than $5.

39.60-0.07(-0.18%)Jul 21 4:04 PMEDT

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