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LTC Properties Inc. Message Board

  • SKELLY36 SKELLY36 Feb 10, 2001 6:35 AM Flag

    LTC vs OHI...

    LTC is in a much stronger position than OHI. LTC has a intrinsic value 4x more than OHI (CFO of OHI gave away the store trying to save the company and has departed).
    OHI's price reflects the "current" value it is worth today. Their earnings "NEXT" year will below this years. With no dividend on the horizon, and a generally down market, there is no general interest in rushing to buy any of this stock.
    LTC is expected to perform much better (didn't give away the store) and is expected to come out with some dividend in the latter part of this year or early next year. It too will be down in earnings next year but it has substantially more earnings power (and the earnings will be higher) than OHI.
    The plays on these two are quite different. If investors had to make a choice of which one to buy, LTC would be the better choice.
    The above is my sole opinion.............
    GOOD INVESTING.............

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    • Skelly, thanks for your response. I'll look at your earlier posts. I totally agree with your characterization of LTC as speculative. During its long slide I read people talking about how "safe" this thing was, presumably because of the dividend. Good God! A 50%+ drop in price. That is as speculative as it gets, and a 10% dividend is small comfort. In fact, to add insult to injury, the dividend is taxable while the loss is not until the stock is sold. If I do buy this thing it will be in the part of my portfolio inhabited by fallen dot.coms.

    • I believe I saw that the President signed the Labor and Health 2001 fiscal year budget bill on 12-21-00.

      However, I did not find what the increase in funding was for the SNC's.

      If you know what that increase was I would appreciate that info.

      I think the government is the key on whether this industry is going to be able to produce an adequate return.

    • Just looked at the convertible bond of LTC due in July of 2001. Investers Daily has a yield to maturity of 37%......it would appear there is still tremendous risk in LTC and its ability to refinance.

      One major advantage that LTC has over OHI is that LTC will manage their distressed propery while OHI has to go to outside firms for this detail. ( the upper management of LTC was CEO at Beverly Enterprises at one time )

      • 1 Reply to Curtispvd992
      • is in much better shape at present and getting better quicker.
        The computer shows the "PEG" of LTC is better than 2x that of OHI "this year" at present prices (Thursday's computer data).
        I own both LTC and OHI as speculative investments but my ratio of LTC shares over OHI is also 2x shares owned.
        Time will tell. The computer hasn't let me down yet.
        Coffee and bet..........
        GOOD INVESTING...............

    • "LTC is expected to perform much better and is expected to come out with some dividend in the latter part of this year or early next year"

      Under the terms of the loan agreement I don't see how that is possible. They will be forced to sell property at a loss which will make it unlikely they will be able to give a dividend. You will be lucky if you get two payments over the next three years.

      Both OHI and LTC are having to sell property at a loss. Both OHI & LTC have common tenant problems. LTC has better management and not much else going for them -

 
LTC
38.50-0.27(-0.70%)Sep 15 4:04 PMEDT

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