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Westell Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • flyersrule_2001 flyersrule_2001 Sep 7, 2000 10:08 AM Flag

    CAPTAINSMARTJACK

    Havn't heard from you in awhile. What are your
    thoughts about the news this morning and what are you
    hearing regarding meeting this quarter's estimates? Your
    feedback is appreciated. So far, no news is good news. I
    did speak with Bruce and he said "demand is brisk".
    Thanks!

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    • Excellent start! ;)

      This reminds me of Bill Laimbeer and the Pistons.. everyone hated him unless he is on your team. Then he is your best ally.

    • <<<What happens IF PC magazine or some
      other independent entity does a performance and quality
      comparison and validates these personal experiences
      >>

      Abosolutely! I will say Westell has the better quality
      product, but seems like Efficient is still able to have a
      level of quality enough to grow business at an enormous
      rate.

      P.S. As for the comments on the boards, its all from
      Westell longs about THEIR modems. I dont see people on
      the Efficient board (who are non Westell longs)
      saying.. man I got a modem from Efficient, it sucks.. how
      can you guys invest in a stock like that... I might
      start seeing that after today now that I posted it as a
      great idea to do on this board,m but thats a whole
      different story ;)

      Last, and I posed this on the
      message board for EFNT. This is a growing pie. Westell
      came from 1-2-3% market share? Efficient came from #1
      position. Acatel is here, cisco is here, some minor guys
      like NEtopia are here. The leader will lose market
      share (my belief at least) unless the other 3 major
      guys (Alcatel, Cisco, Westell) are total incompetents.
      No company is going to dominate alone a potentially
      huge marketplace. When DSL was in its infancy about 6
      months ago it seems like no one was really in the market
      but Efficient and a little Alcatel and a little
      Westell, now the other 2 have ramped up (and Cisco has
      entered) so my assumption is Efficient, being the leader
      by a huge amount WILL lose market share. If they can
      just sit on their current levels as the pie grows it
      will be huge, as it will be for Westell.

      All
      that said it sounds like Im saying Efficient has lost
      market share... maybe, maybe not. But I still look at
      the revenue figures and we have a nice basis to
      compare the 2 companies.. $63 or $67 million last Q for
      Westell depending on how you want to classify it, and
      $101 million for Efficient.

      Can we agree that
      the revenue growth in the next quarter earnings
      report will show who has done well the past 3 months? Or
      will the fact if Efficient increases to $125 million
      in revenue and say Westell to $80 million mean
      something or nothing? Just curious if thats the way it
      shakes out what that means in terms of "market share"

    • Matt, Please refer to *HIM* when you post. You
      must also acknowledge the righteousness of *HIS* views
      and *HIS* interest on this board. What makes you
      think you are a *REAL* business man like *HIM* anyway?
      Must have lots of *HIS* pictures all over his desk
      where *HE* constantly hypes *HIMSELF*, *HIS* real
      business knowledge, because *HE* has no real friends
      because they got tired of hearing *HIM* say how great
      *HE* was. Not to knock his posts content but, wow,
      *HIS* personality even sucks on the web. G Damn, I wish
      WSTL went up a point for everytime *HE* refers to
      himself. We'd be rich.

    • Ok your cutting and pasting only portions of my
      statements, please lets me accurate:

      You said:
      "Not
      only that, it was not a balanced statement as it made
      a sweeping generalization about the posters on this
      thread (use of "every post" "no one ever"...)

      In
      retort you made an unbalanced statement.
      You took
      "every post" which you put in quotes out of the full
      context.

      I said "basically every post"
      and therefore by
      including the word basically in the phrase i dont
      generalize and say "every post"
      as you are saying I
      said.

      Once again you are like the other 3 people who
      misquote or only take parts of the sentence out to make it
      say something different then what I said.

      I
      never said ALL posters do anything (I said "basically
      all" big difference).

      Once again in your anger
      or haste your not cutting and pasting or reading
      thoroughly.

      I said: "basically every post here says WSTL is
      stealing ...etc etc". When you leave out certain words it
      changes the statement...
      So please be accurate and
      extrude the entire snippet instead of grabbing just the
      convenient words for your argument.

      P.S> For your
      last point, I dont care about the perception of me on
      the thread.. these are a bunch of anonymous people
      and most would not say a LOT of the things they say
      on here to each other's face if they were in the
      same room. Many post swear words daily at each other,
      rip on each other's mom's, or whatever, and basically
      act like 6 year olds (this is for every board, not
      WSTL only)

      Now I did not generalize, I said
      "many" not "most" nor "all".

      I on the other hand
      stand behind what I say... and if people are upset or
      joyous with the words, thats ok either
      way.

      Thanks for your time ;)

      P.S. THis is of no use to
      the message board and basically a pissing contest
      that reminds me of the "its" versus "it's" discussion
      ... boring for everyone

    • I respect the thoughtfulness of your posts and
      therefore feel you are worth trying to engage in a
      "balanced" conversation (like I attempted with Btrader70)-
      but you take any criticism of your own views in a
      very immature way (investing experience aside).


      Let me give you an example that not even you can
      dispute. Many people have posted their experiences with
      EFNT modems. There have been many statements about
      WSTL being a higher quality product. Your response to
      that was sarcastic and defensive in nature. I will
      paraphrase your comments as I do not want to have to go dig
      them up (but will if necessary) "all the cheerleaders
      on this board are saying WSTL modems are made of
      gold and EFNT modems are made of crap - why then is
      EFNT the number 1 DSL modem company, as per the Del
      Oro report." No one on this thread said things in
      those terms, they simply said WSTL makes a better
      product - period (based on their own personal experiences
      - not some report). YOU twisted it into something
      it was not - mindless cheerleading and a desire to
      not want to see the "entire picture". What happens IF
      PC magazine or some other independent entity does a
      performance and quality comparison and validates these
      personal experiences - and oh by the way, they cost the
      same, so you are not paying more for a better product?
      Will you have the humility to come on here and admit
      your posts were reactionary and defensive?

      I am
      not your enemy in all this Mark, just tired of the
      defensive sacrcasm that has no place from a poster that
      claims to want to hear a balanced view. WSTL's
      increasing marketshare (including who they might be taking
      market share from), quality issues, GPM etc... are ALL
      part of that balanced view. Leave it to the shorts to
      say nothing positive and the true cheerleaders to say
      nothing negative. Stick to talking about both. Like it or
      not, WSTL might be stealing marketshare from EFNT -
      maybe, maybe not - but something that has to be
      discussed completely and something you seem reluctant to do
      because you are upset with "every post here says WSTL is
      stealing..." from the company you are long in.

    • Mark,

      "I received no clarity from that
      post - was very difficult to understand.
      Sorry."

      That's quite alright - every one on this thread that has
      remarked on your oversensitivity to anything said negative
      about EFNT or your own views does understand quite
      clearly.

      I made several posts about WSTL market share not
      necessarily stealing from EFNT.

      So, "basically every
      post here says WSTL is stealing EFNT share and that is
      what I have been disputing.. No one ever brings up
      WSTL could be taking share from say a Alcatel, it
      seems only EFNT is the one losing share.." was an
      erroneous statement on your part. Not only that, it was not
      a balanced statement as it made a sweeping
      generalization about the posters on this thread (use of "every
      post" "no one ever"...) yet YOU want balance in
      people's posts. (is the picture getting clearer for you
      yet Mark?) Further, Capt SJ made an articulate post
      about WSTL taking domestic marketshare from EFNT. I
      respect Capt SJ's views a great deal, but where was your
      criticism of that??? You were critical of everyone
      else.

      Also, you prove my point entirely with your
      response to me. I have been gone all week (you know - my
      real job)- thus no posts. I got home very early this
      morning and was trying to get caught up some (there were
      about 600 posts from Monday morning to this morning).
      So, you jump to a conclusion without having the
      decency to ask or do a little research. This is not the
      first time you have said something out of ignorance in
      an attempt to whine. (Like your post saying that I
      told you not to post here if you were not long so you
      were going to buy 1 share so that I would "allow" you
      to post - a total whining fabrication on your
      part)

      I do not "attack" you. I find the majority of your
      posts thoughtful. Your posts are not that specific
      about WSTL "facts" but instead try to bring up items
      for thoughtful discussion. You made numerous posts
      about WSTL's marketshare and while you may have been
      trying to defend your views in terms of EFNT
      marketshare, you dismissed people's statements as not factual
      because WSTL was not mentioned in the Del Oro report but
      Alcatel was and this thread was nothing but a bunch of
      cheerleaders.

      Yet again, had you actually been on this
      thread more than a few weeks, you would know that I had
      a very heated debate with btrader70 and her
      specious views on GPM as well as mixing it up with
      Sweetlou (nothing personal focused only at you). However,
      as long as you continue to take the attitude that
      you may question everyone else's perspective, but
      your own should not have to be scrutinized, then I
      will continue to point out your hypocrisy. Deny it all
      you like, but most people on this thread have that
      perception of you. If it is a misperception - than do
      something about it.

    • I think the point is that WSTL has become main
      supplier to companies which EFNT used to be the the main
      supplier for. That is why you hear that EFNT is losing
      share to WSTL....

      In any case both stocks seem
      to have their own problems right now...

      Hold
      long to both and you'll do just fine..IMO

    • I also notice you dont yell at anyone but me, I
      find that interesting. You lay quiet for 3 days and
      when I post, your suddenly posting within 10 minutes.
      Very interesting. Apparently no one else's views
      matter enough for you to comment on, there have been
      probably 400 posts in a few days, probably 150 negative
      and you jump on mine which I didnt view as negative
      other than to say sequential growth does matter and
      will be looked at.

      Bye

    • I received no clarity from that post - was very
      difficult to understand. Sorry.

      And I dont remember
      cheerleading the EFNT Del Oro report other than when someone
      told me it was posted on "day so and so" and I said it
      was actually posted 2 days earlier...

      And when
      you go from nothing to 63 million CPE sales obviously
      thats growth, I have never disputed it?? Would like to
      see where I said anywhere that WSTL is not growing
      modem sales.

      All the market share news is
      Westell specific.. I dont know if they are winning EFNT
      accounts.. none of these reports say that do they? If so I
      missed the sentence... basically every post here says
      WSTL is stealing EFNT share and that is what I have
      been disputing.. not the organic growth of WSTL in
      itself. No one ever brings up WSTL could be taking share
      from say a Alcatel, it seems only EFNT is the one
      losing share. And I have seen no reports saying that. ??
      Did I miss it?

      Mark

    • Right, I know you are not implying revenue growth
      is not important. And I agree, because its early in
      the game orders are big but clumpy. For you or I, who
      actually look behind the numbers a revenue drop, leveling,
      or small growth would be ok .. but Im not talking
      about you or I or some of the other guys/girls on the
      board. I have been on stock message boards since 97 and
      to be blunt the message you got earlier today was
      typical of what most people are about: EPS.

      The
      average investor seemingly looks at 1 number (EPS) out of
      ALL those important numbers on an earnings report,
      compares it to analysts estimates and the whisper number
      and makes a decision off that. Its not a good way to
      invest, but the way many do invest and even if your
      smarter than the herd and look behind the numbers, if the
      herd panics... even the "smart" people who look much
      deeper get hurt (in the short run) by the herd
      actions.

      The "average" person on these boards doesnt even know
      what gross margins are or the long term affect of R&D
      as a percentage of sales, or comparing such numbers
      versus competitors... or a lot of deeper
      financial/business issues. I've seen people vigorously fight me on
      message boards for weeks (not just WSTL) and then ask
      something like "whats the float mean". Im not trying to
      make myself as "super smart" (but I do a hell of a lot
      of research) or am I dispariging the WSTL board in
      particular, Im talking about ALL boards. (especiallY Yahoo
      boards, Silicon Investor boards tend to have more in
      depth researchers) And Im not insulting the
      intelligence of the average person who invests for
      himself/herself... they see what is talked about on CNBC and the
      "experts" there also only focus on 1 or 2 numbers (EPS
      and/or revenues) and then move to the next hot story. So
      they follow the experts & thats how they learn to
      invest.

      There are a lot of VERY bright posters on this board as
      well as many others, but even if you or I are right on
      long term fundamental issues, we get stampeded (If we
      are buy and hold types) with the herd emotional
      mentalities that take over when the "consensus" looks at
      those 1 or 2 numbers and makes emotional decisions.
      That is why, unless your a buy and hold type, you not
      only have to "analyze the numbers" and trends for
      yourself, but also guess the mentality of the fellow rats
      on the ship (are they jumping or not) It's 1/2
      psychology and 1/2 actual investing.

      Hence, once
      again, the story from here is what happens AFTER the
      October earnings report. At that point people who are
      short will sit on this board for 3 months pointing to
      "only 5% sequential growth dumbasses" and longs will
      say "just wait to December you shithead" Its just a
      tiring process to go through especially since I can see
      it here forming already.

      As for EFNT, due to
      SBC weakness Ive lowered my sequential revenue grwoth
      estimate to 30% (which is still huge considering the
      environment).. that will be a drop off from the 65% the quarter
      before but considering the inventory issues at the
      biggest customer I think its reasonable. But unlike
      Westell I dont have anyone on that board to use as a
      guide, so its a guestimate. But just because *I* will
      fine the drop off (if it happens to that degree)
      reasonable, doesnt mean the herd will.....I will be very
      interested in seeing how the stock will react to a slowdown
      like that... Personally looking at the big picture I
      have no qualm with it, but I am not the herd, but
      simply a gnat riding the back of the herd. Same goes
      with many issues here with Westell.

      Mark

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