Havn't heard from you in awhile. What are your
thoughts about the news this morning and what are you
hearing regarding meeting this quarter's estimates? Your
feedback is appreciated. So far, no news is good news. I
did speak with Bruce and he said "demand is brisk".
<<<What happens IF PC magazine or some
other independent entity does a performance and quality
comparison and validates these personal experiences
Abosolutely! I will say Westell has the better quality
product, but seems like Efficient is still able to have a
level of quality enough to grow business at an enormous
P.S. As for the comments on the boards, its all from
Westell longs about THEIR modems. I dont see people on
the Efficient board (who are non Westell longs)
saying.. man I got a modem from Efficient, it sucks.. how
can you guys invest in a stock like that... I might
start seeing that after today now that I posted it as a
great idea to do on this board,m but thats a whole
different story ;)
Last, and I posed this on the
message board for EFNT. This is a growing pie. Westell
came from 1-2-3% market share? Efficient came from #1
position. Acatel is here, cisco is here, some minor guys
like NEtopia are here. The leader will lose market
share (my belief at least) unless the other 3 major
guys (Alcatel, Cisco, Westell) are total incompetents.
No company is going to dominate alone a potentially
huge marketplace. When DSL was in its infancy about 6
months ago it seems like no one was really in the market
but Efficient and a little Alcatel and a little
Westell, now the other 2 have ramped up (and Cisco has
entered) so my assumption is Efficient, being the leader
by a huge amount WILL lose market share. If they can
just sit on their current levels as the pie grows it
will be huge, as it will be for Westell.
that said it sounds like Im saying Efficient has lost
market share... maybe, maybe not. But I still look at
the revenue figures and we have a nice basis to
compare the 2 companies.. $63 or $67 million last Q for
Westell depending on how you want to classify it, and
$101 million for Efficient.
Can we agree that
the revenue growth in the next quarter earnings
report will show who has done well the past 3 months? Or
will the fact if Efficient increases to $125 million
in revenue and say Westell to $80 million mean
something or nothing? Just curious if thats the way it
shakes out what that means in terms of "market share"
Matt, Please refer to *HIM* when you post. You
must also acknowledge the righteousness of *HIS* views
and *HIS* interest on this board. What makes you
think you are a *REAL* business man like *HIM* anyway?
Must have lots of *HIS* pictures all over his desk
where *HE* constantly hypes *HIMSELF*, *HIS* real
business knowledge, because *HE* has no real friends
because they got tired of hearing *HIM* say how great
*HE* was. Not to knock his posts content but, wow,
*HIS* personality even sucks on the web. G Damn, I wish
WSTL went up a point for everytime *HE* refers to
himself. We'd be rich.
Ok your cutting and pasting only portions of my
statements, please lets me accurate:
only that, it was not a balanced statement as it made
a sweeping generalization about the posters on this
thread (use of "every post" "no one ever"...)
retort you made an unbalanced statement.
"every post" which you put in quotes out of the full
I said "basically every post"
and therefore by
including the word basically in the phrase i dont
generalize and say "every post"
as you are saying I
Once again you are like the other 3 people who
misquote or only take parts of the sentence out to make it
say something different then what I said.
never said ALL posters do anything (I said "basically
all" big difference).
Once again in your anger
or haste your not cutting and pasting or reading
I said: "basically every post here says WSTL is
stealing ...etc etc". When you leave out certain words it
changes the statement...
So please be accurate and
extrude the entire snippet instead of grabbing just the
convenient words for your argument.
P.S> For your
last point, I dont care about the perception of me on
the thread.. these are a bunch of anonymous people
and most would not say a LOT of the things they say
on here to each other's face if they were in the
same room. Many post swear words daily at each other,
rip on each other's mom's, or whatever, and basically
act like 6 year olds (this is for every board, not
Now I did not generalize, I said
"many" not "most" nor "all".
I on the other hand
stand behind what I say... and if people are upset or
joyous with the words, thats ok either
Thanks for your time ;)
P.S. THis is of no use to
the message board and basically a pissing contest
that reminds me of the "its" versus "it's" discussion
... boring for everyone
I respect the thoughtfulness of your posts and
therefore feel you are worth trying to engage in a
"balanced" conversation (like I attempted with Btrader70)-
but you take any criticism of your own views in a
very immature way (investing experience aside).
Let me give you an example that not even you can
dispute. Many people have posted their experiences with
EFNT modems. There have been many statements about
WSTL being a higher quality product. Your response to
that was sarcastic and defensive in nature. I will
paraphrase your comments as I do not want to have to go dig
them up (but will if necessary) "all the cheerleaders
on this board are saying WSTL modems are made of
gold and EFNT modems are made of crap - why then is
EFNT the number 1 DSL modem company, as per the Del
Oro report." No one on this thread said things in
those terms, they simply said WSTL makes a better
product - period (based on their own personal experiences
- not some report). YOU twisted it into something
it was not - mindless cheerleading and a desire to
not want to see the "entire picture". What happens IF
PC magazine or some other independent entity does a
performance and quality comparison and validates these
personal experiences - and oh by the way, they cost the
same, so you are not paying more for a better product?
Will you have the humility to come on here and admit
your posts were reactionary and defensive?
not your enemy in all this Mark, just tired of the
defensive sacrcasm that has no place from a poster that
claims to want to hear a balanced view. WSTL's
increasing marketshare (including who they might be taking
market share from), quality issues, GPM etc... are ALL
part of that balanced view. Leave it to the shorts to
say nothing positive and the true cheerleaders to say
nothing negative. Stick to talking about both. Like it or
not, WSTL might be stealing marketshare from EFNT -
maybe, maybe not - but something that has to be
discussed completely and something you seem reluctant to do
because you are upset with "every post here says WSTL is
stealing..." from the company you are long in.
"I received no clarity from that
post - was very difficult to understand.
That's quite alright - every one on this thread that has
remarked on your oversensitivity to anything said negative
about EFNT or your own views does understand quite
I made several posts about WSTL market share not
necessarily stealing from EFNT.
So, "basically every
post here says WSTL is stealing EFNT share and that is
what I have been disputing.. No one ever brings up
WSTL could be taking share from say a Alcatel, it
seems only EFNT is the one losing share.." was an
erroneous statement on your part. Not only that, it was not
a balanced statement as it made a sweeping
generalization about the posters on this thread (use of "every
post" "no one ever"...) yet YOU want balance in
people's posts. (is the picture getting clearer for you
yet Mark?) Further, Capt SJ made an articulate post
about WSTL taking domestic marketshare from EFNT. I
respect Capt SJ's views a great deal, but where was your
criticism of that??? You were critical of everyone
Also, you prove my point entirely with your
response to me. I have been gone all week (you know - my
real job)- thus no posts. I got home very early this
morning and was trying to get caught up some (there were
about 600 posts from Monday morning to this morning).
So, you jump to a conclusion without having the
decency to ask or do a little research. This is not the
first time you have said something out of ignorance in
an attempt to whine. (Like your post saying that I
told you not to post here if you were not long so you
were going to buy 1 share so that I would "allow" you
to post - a total whining fabrication on your
I do not "attack" you. I find the majority of your
posts thoughtful. Your posts are not that specific
about WSTL "facts" but instead try to bring up items
for thoughtful discussion. You made numerous posts
about WSTL's marketshare and while you may have been
trying to defend your views in terms of EFNT
marketshare, you dismissed people's statements as not factual
because WSTL was not mentioned in the Del Oro report but
Alcatel was and this thread was nothing but a bunch of
Yet again, had you actually been on this
thread more than a few weeks, you would know that I had
a very heated debate with btrader70 and her
specious views on GPM as well as mixing it up with
Sweetlou (nothing personal focused only at you). However,
as long as you continue to take the attitude that
you may question everyone else's perspective, but
your own should not have to be scrutinized, then I
will continue to point out your hypocrisy. Deny it all
you like, but most people on this thread have that
perception of you. If it is a misperception - than do
something about it.
I think the point is that WSTL has become main
supplier to companies which EFNT used to be the the main
supplier for. That is why you hear that EFNT is losing
share to WSTL....
In any case both stocks seem
to have their own problems right now...
long to both and you'll do just fine..IMO
I also notice you dont yell at anyone but me, I
find that interesting. You lay quiet for 3 days and
when I post, your suddenly posting within 10 minutes.
Very interesting. Apparently no one else's views
matter enough for you to comment on, there have been
probably 400 posts in a few days, probably 150 negative
and you jump on mine which I didnt view as negative
other than to say sequential growth does matter and
will be looked at.
I received no clarity from that post - was very
difficult to understand. Sorry.
And I dont remember
cheerleading the EFNT Del Oro report other than when someone
told me it was posted on "day so and so" and I said it
was actually posted 2 days earlier...
you go from nothing to 63 million CPE sales obviously
thats growth, I have never disputed it?? Would like to
see where I said anywhere that WSTL is not growing
All the market share news is
Westell specific.. I dont know if they are winning EFNT
accounts.. none of these reports say that do they? If so I
missed the sentence... basically every post here says
WSTL is stealing EFNT share and that is what I have
been disputing.. not the organic growth of WSTL in
itself. No one ever brings up WSTL could be taking share
from say a Alcatel, it seems only EFNT is the one
losing share. And I have seen no reports saying that. ??
Did I miss it?
Right, I know you are not implying revenue growth
is not important. And I agree, because its early in
the game orders are big but clumpy. For you or I, who
actually look behind the numbers a revenue drop, leveling,
or small growth would be ok .. but Im not talking
about you or I or some of the other guys/girls on the
board. I have been on stock message boards since 97 and
to be blunt the message you got earlier today was
typical of what most people are about: EPS.
average investor seemingly looks at 1 number (EPS) out of
ALL those important numbers on an earnings report,
compares it to analysts estimates and the whisper number
and makes a decision off that. Its not a good way to
invest, but the way many do invest and even if your
smarter than the herd and look behind the numbers, if the
herd panics... even the "smart" people who look much
deeper get hurt (in the short run) by the herd
The "average" person on these boards doesnt even know
what gross margins are or the long term affect of R&D
as a percentage of sales, or comparing such numbers
versus competitors... or a lot of deeper
financial/business issues. I've seen people vigorously fight me on
message boards for weeks (not just WSTL) and then ask
something like "whats the float mean". Im not trying to
make myself as "super smart" (but I do a hell of a lot
of research) or am I dispariging the WSTL board in
particular, Im talking about ALL boards. (especiallY Yahoo
boards, Silicon Investor boards tend to have more in
depth researchers) And Im not insulting the
intelligence of the average person who invests for
himself/herself... they see what is talked about on CNBC and the
"experts" there also only focus on 1 or 2 numbers (EPS
and/or revenues) and then move to the next hot story. So
they follow the experts & thats how they learn to
There are a lot of VERY bright posters on this board as
well as many others, but even if you or I are right on
long term fundamental issues, we get stampeded (If we
are buy and hold types) with the herd emotional
mentalities that take over when the "consensus" looks at
those 1 or 2 numbers and makes emotional decisions.
That is why, unless your a buy and hold type, you not
only have to "analyze the numbers" and trends for
yourself, but also guess the mentality of the fellow rats
on the ship (are they jumping or not) It's 1/2
psychology and 1/2 actual investing.
again, the story from here is what happens AFTER the
October earnings report. At that point people who are
short will sit on this board for 3 months pointing to
"only 5% sequential growth dumbasses" and longs will
say "just wait to December you shithead" Its just a
tiring process to go through especially since I can see
it here forming already.
As for EFNT, due to
SBC weakness Ive lowered my sequential revenue grwoth
estimate to 30% (which is still huge considering the
environment).. that will be a drop off from the 65% the quarter
before but considering the inventory issues at the
biggest customer I think its reasonable. But unlike
Westell I dont have anyone on that board to use as a
guide, so its a guestimate. But just because *I* will
fine the drop off (if it happens to that degree)
reasonable, doesnt mean the herd will.....I will be very
interested in seeing how the stock will react to a slowdown
like that... Personally looking at the big picture I
have no qualm with it, but I am not the herd, but
simply a gnat riding the back of the herd. Same goes
with many issues here with Westell.