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Carnival Corporation Message Board

  • waddawhat2002 waddawhat2002 Apr 5, 2008 8:54 AM Flag

    Why I might pull the trigger on CCL

     

    - People are super negative on the consumer, which keeps this stock price pushed down
    - 4% divy
    - Low PE
    - Price/book is favorable
    - As people age, they travel more
    - Most people have never been on a cruise
    - Big company with segemented brands allows for different experiences but at the same time economies of scale
    - I do believe CCL is sort of like a floating hotel, however CCL is much cheaper on a valuation basis than hotel stocks.
    - A weak dollar means taking a cruise from Miami is much cheaper for Europeans who take 4 vacations per year.
    - Tax rebates could friviously be spent on a Carnival cruise.
    - Strong brand name.
    - Expected growth in the company and expanding fleet.

    - The negatives are the fact that 1 act of terrorism happens and this stock gets pummeled.
    - The stock price still could go down 10 bucks per share which is fine if you are a long term investor, but it is never fun when that happens to you.
    - The consumer really could be hurting for some time. Most cruises aren't terribly expensive and could hurt the target market.
    - Just missed the divy.

    I tell you what, I like this stock and if it were to retreat a little bit ( very possible), I might bite.

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    • Hope your gun is smoking from pulling that trigger. I suspect earnings will be ok then you might want to pull that trigger again and take the profit.

    • You can always bite at the same entry price as today, when it turns, and comes back up...no need to buy now. The american consumer, and the european consumer, are just now beginning to feel the crunch. It is going to be long and deep. Anyone who thinks that the feds actions are going to save the day are not putting enough thought into the equation - bank's hands are tied, they will not be able to sufficiently lend for at least another two years, and even when they are finally able to lend, why will firms borrow without having a consumer? With our two-tier wage system, where the top percentile, $75,000+ consisting of far fewer individuals their is no buying power to be had for several years, if not decades. Mickey-D's, and Walmart do not produce employees with any where near enough jack!

      • 1 Reply to JustYes
      • wadda - do what I do with stocks I'm interested in. Put in good until cancelled limit orders. If the stock drops, then you get a fill. This way you can just forget about a stock. Every week or two go through your orders and decide whether there was any fundamental change to cancel the order.

        Personally I don't think we will see new lows (below the Mar 17th low near $36), although it could trade in the $38-$45 range for a long time until we get a better handle of the economy. With the rougly 3.5% dividend yield I don't mind waiting.

 
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