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Kinross Gold Corporation Message Board

  • PwrTrader PwrTrader Jan 20, 2006 3:20 PM Flag

    Ouch! Welcome to Reality

    Citigroup misses, GE revenues sinking, well, we all know the economy is slowing, don't we?

    Does the market crash Monday?

    Gold very volatile, at the top of my yearly range. Gold will decline if slowdown in economy becomes evident to the masses, then as financial system collapses, it will skyrocket. This has been my scenario since last year, figured it would start end of 2005, but it starts now. Real Estate will come down hard, so will all asset classes (including Gold), doesn't mean Gold can't have a meaningful rally, but the buying demand will wain as discretionary income worldwide sinks, and so do inflation fears.

    This is all about the Gold trading range I talked about this year, no runaway, a nice range, financial panic, then the most powerful rally in Gold seen in our lifetime. Investors stay put (no pun intended), Traders, keep the core, but lots of money to make trading Gold and other stocks (if nimble).

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    • Metalcomplex2005 to the rescue! Thanks a million, pun intended. I was afraid when I posted that it would sound so outlandish as not to be believed, so I low balled it. Then of course, the board would want the details, which I'd lost.
      Actually, the .com bubble had nothing on those stocks of over $400 a share! It still is hard to take in. So don't get too fancy with your trading in and out and get left in the dust. Which also happened to people who thought they could time it only to get back in at much higher prices they didn't expect.

    • Unless geopolitical events get in the way, I don't see any signs of financial or economic meltdown. I also think Friday's stock market drop was way overdone and a bear trap. As for Gold there are powerful forces behind this move but to forecast daily gyrations is a crapshoot. Gold will continue to rally and will reward the buy and hold crowd, not the traders.As for Oil, this "fear premium" should shrink unless the Nigerian problems get worse. The Iranian matter is on hold.

      • 2 Replies to clageo
      • Buy and hold, trading makes some nervous (as it should) and maybe gold is going higher sooner? Where have I heard this before? Can't remember? LOL
        Does anyone remember KGC 12 and gold over $600 in first six months of 2006, but stated a few months ago. How about something big happens with KGC in first 2 months of 2006? Not long to wait to see if this is correct.
        I also love it when folks go into denial about the reasons gold is going up. Why for instance is it in the cards for the US dollar to tank? Because there is too much money out there, and the US does not want a deflationary depression. So they keep printing, till people just will not accept it, or the discount it, or both. Where do people think folks are going to spend the trillions ALREADY out there now?????
        Its a tightrope act. You raise interest rates too far, and you drive the economy down because of all the EXISTING debt, you don't and people might not want to hold your currency. You try and hold commodity prices in line, but with increasing demand, from the inflated economy you can't, while printing more money daily. I would not want to try and solve this. Some of you seem to have it solved in your minds, hope it works out for the better. Time will tell.

      • Well Said Clageo, I'm in for the long haul with PM stocks. I'm sitting on some cash and looking to add more into PM stock any time now.

        You posted a PM stock symbol a month or so ago, I was keeping an eye on it but lost the symbol, began with a "G" I think. Would you post it again, thanks!

    • PWR,
      Traded 2k shs kgc for .12 Fri. Decided trading makes me a nervous wreck. Also decided to leave arbitrage to pros.
      All puts expired worthless, cash with opportunity coming seems to be a nice place to be. Going to Escondido Wild Animal Park for Op-Ex party.

    • Thanks for all the exciting responses.

    • Dear PWR and KGC Board Friends,

      Would love to hear your thoughts on the following article in Gold-Eagle by economist, Dr. Petrov, at Ohio State U.

      **http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/petrov011606.html

      It feels like a real possibility to me and very scarey for the USD; not to mention our quality of life.

      Cheers, Dr. Joe

      • 2 Replies to dr_bohica
      • If the the oil bourse were the real cause for US' hard stance against Iran, why are the western Europeans joining the chorus on the American side? Aren't they supposed to benefit from the Euro-denominated trades in the Iranian bourse? Or it's just a show because they don't dare to upset the Americans?

        I can understand the Russian and Chinese positions, but not that of France.

      • All people are doing now is trying to figure out if we avoid this sort of scenario, or alternately stick their heads in the sand. Thus the reason I emphasize, you do not want to be standing on the side lines looking at some chart wondering what to do and get caught possibly. Its like buying insurance after you die! It usually does not work out too well, even if the insurance agent is a great saleman!! LOL IMO

    • I do not disagree with the possibility of this scenario, but for the average investor who does not want to miss the upside and stay protected, I would pass on this attempt to call the pull backs.imo The world is a lot smarter, and reacts a good deal faster than in the past, a blessing and scary all at the same time. I will give you an alternate scenario. The US dollar crashes as people holding it by the trillions bail on any sign that the US is in serious economic trouble (as if the signs arn't there already masked by false consumption based on debt etc) but anyway this might just be the outcome, so that contraction is mirrored by dumping. And where are they going if they all decide to dump???? I say gold.imo It could happen so fast, that it makes all these trader induced 10-20 day moves pale. You want to be in if/when this happens.imo eos If anything should be apparent over the last months and weeks and even days, YOU CAN'T PREDICT THESE EVENTS accurately. imo

    • Dr. Ben says he'll toss money out of a helicopter should your scenario take place. Perhaps he's getting the copter warmed up by discontinuing M3 reporting, we'll soon find out.

 
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