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Kinross Gold Corporation Message Board

  • stockineer stockineer Aug 17, 2013 9:15 AM Flag


    On Stockineer the topic has come up about Larry Edelson and his predictions on gold and KGC. I'm not personally familiar with Larry or his work, but I decided to take a look at the technical scene and to be honest, there's two cases to be made with KGC, a bullish and a bearish one. Of course, time frame is important in your trading goals. I've posted both charts with discussion on Stockineer so folks can decide what they think is best for their, sell or watch. If you're looking to buy, I'd personally wait to break above the resistance of a stubborn downward trendline to break. Price touched it just the other day and reversed below $6, which I didn't really like from a bullish point of view. At any rate, I just thought I'd share what we're looking at with the boards which may have some further insight to their positions.

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    • Aug 17, 2013 9:41 AM Flag

      First of all, there is always a bull and bear case to be made in any stock at any moment in any timeframe. So to say that there is a bull and bear case to made is a lot of useless prattle. Secondly, Larry E is completely speaking nonsense when he says gold is heading back down to new lows the 3rd week of Sep ~ $1,050/oz gold price, while at the same time saying the gold mining sector put in its bottom last week. I think he is out of his gourd to only look at technicals and completely ignore fundamentals. Every experienced trader in this sector knows that the miners would never ignore a move in gold down to $1,050/oz. The two entities are not mutually exclusive; in fact, they are so closely tied together that to ignore this fact discredits him completely in my book. If we see, $1,050 gold, I have little doubt KGC is back in the $4's again or lower and the gold mining sector itself is testing new lows. I sincerely hope he is wrong about gold heading down there in Sep, but my point is that I don't see the logic in his conflicted prediction of the miners.

      • 2 Replies to
      • Todd, I would hope the bottom is already in. However, what Larry E says is possible, as the stocks typically lead the metal. Although improbable, KGC could rise to $8 at $1500 gold and then hold $5 if the metal breaks to a new low below $1180. Just look at a chart of GLD vs GDXJ for the year 2011--and turn it upside down.

      • Todd, it's true...there is almost always a bull and a bear case. However, sometimes the charts read more bullish than others. In this situation, the price is congested in a mix of support and resistance levels which often means it'll trade between those for some time before it breaks one way or the other. For example, when gold broke below $1500, it was a very bearish case and a bullish one couldn't really be made based on the technicals. It was an easy short, one which we talked about. It's that easy money we're looking to make on trades...or at least ones of high confidence, certainly nothing is a sure bet...unfortunately. The point I'm making on KGC is there's no clear bet as the market is trying to figure it out, but the first step to watching the support and resistance levels is knowing where there are which is what I'm showing my readers. Fundamentals are great, but technicals give you the buy/sell signal.
        I've never heard of Larry, and I'm not big on "predictions" unless the come from a breakdown of a pattern. My price target from my April 12th article for $GOLD was $1250 -$1150, with a current low of $1179 you can see how patterns can give targets. I don't see another breakdown at the moment that suggests another move down. Thanks for the input Todd.

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