haha... I like your style. A lot like mine and can recognize a Winner when you see it.
I'm a big believer in STMP and think it's got the potential to be a mini-NFLX, AMZN, etc.
Some of the reasons I hold this presumption are (but not limited to) the following: Barriers to Entry are Significant. Has a Competitive Advantage. Has Brand Recognition. Cost Advantage in it's Marketplace. Low Float and Misguided Shorts to Fuel the Fire. Marketplace Trends shifting into STMP's favor. etc...etc...etc...
I could go on and on, but why? Done my DD and do not see anything to challenge the bullishness around STMP's position and futre in it's core business.
Got a question for you (just curious)... Do you own calls?
Not only do I believe the Feb 25's (at $4.90, where I just bought/added to my position) are attractive... but I think they are a slam-dunk.
Actually, I think there are Many Attractive Calls at Many Strikes in Multiple Expirations.
My style is to pick up Calls/Puts on stocks experiencing 1-day reversals (due to macro conditions and not company-specific) from the Stock's Short-Intermediate Trend based on Technicals.
Just wondering if you trade/invest with a similar style and have anything you are looking at as well....
Maybe trade some ideas with each other while we wait for STMP's potential to unfold right in front of shorty's eyes as STMP is technically looking Very Strong (in the short-term) heading into earnings (important and positive catalyst with many other catalysts to playout in the s/t, intermediate, and l/t)....
I've dabbled in calls a couple of times...was a bit over enthusiastic and underestimated the power of shorts when a float is thin and the company is dissed on the street - lost a bit of my backside both times - nothing big - just bit.
Always just felt more comfortable buying the stock in small quantities when the time "felt" right and holding it long term. I've usually picked up a few shares on the pull-backs following gap-ups following good earnings announcements...if I were to buy calls...I'd try to do it when the shorts were buying them, which is probably about the time they're selling the stock into the ground, not so much when they are covering.
The timing of the February 25's is quite interesting in that it follows on the heals of the 4th quarter/fiscal year announcement. If this thing gaps to $40 - then yea, I'd say $25 Feb. Calls look pretty tasty at $4.50 - $5.00 Just depends on how bullish you are on the company's prospects of a blow-out quarter with extended guidance.
Buy and Hold. It aint flashy, but it works...ask the guys who own 100's of Ks of shares...they'll probably tell ya the same thing.
My style if I have one...is to invest fundamentally...with an eye to the future, not the past. Mostly though, I won't be pushed out of a position that is fundamentally sound, just because the float is thin enough to be subject to price manipulation, ie. I'm stubborn.
Yeah, I hear your points on options. My first trades dipping my toes into the option world bit my backside as well. That said, some were Winners as well.
I'm nowhere near an expert in Options as I mainly just trade Call & Put Options. I know that is pretty 1-Dimensional. I intend to educate myself further in the likes of Spreads and Other Strategies to Minimize Risk. I'd like to graduate to the level of putting a Strategy together where no matter how a Stock reacts to a Catalyst, it didn't cost me anything to exercise and still reaped the reward.
I hear you on Buying the Common on Dips, Following Momentum on Catalyst-driven Events (i.e. Earnings, News, etc.). I do the same, as volatility is an ingredient in my Investment or Trading Profile, whether it's with the Common or Options... I Trade/Invest (both) Stocks/Options with a Technical Bias but usually always have a Bottom-Up Approach with Emphasis on Fundamentals. I usually discount Macro Events but respect their relevance in relation to the big picture.
Bottom line is, I trade/invest both Stocks and Options, and I realize the Risk Leverage embedded in Options and constantly look for opportunities to capatilize on it... Kind of like how many STMP Options were up 50-100% yesterday vs. the Common's +10% (and I'd take either 1-Day %-Return, any day!)
As far as the FEB-25's, agree with you for the most part on the timing. Honestly, I'm not sure if I will hold through earnings or not? If the Options returns say 50-100%+ by then (pre-earnings).. Does it make sense to turn a Home-run into a Single (or strike-out) while trying for a Walk-off Grand Slam? I guess it depends on your Investment Profile/Style, Timing, Opportunity Cost, Technical Grade (overbought/oversold) etc. We'll see how it plays out.
As far as STMP as a stock, I believe (and you obviously concur from your posts) there was no reason the stock should have gone sideways/reversed from it's Last Q's Results' appreciation/pop in regards to it's price. The company has got everything going for it (in regards to my reasoning for investing in it, broad-stroked/outlined in my previous post). I truly think STMP is one of those companies people kick themselves for not "noticing" the company's potential earlier (after the herd catches on). I remember NFLX trading in the $20s... HANS 3-splits ago... BIDU IPO day... GOOG IPO day... CMG the day it was spun-off from MCD... AAPL in the $80s at the height of the crash, etc. ..and traded them all (as I'm sure you have of the same or like-stocks). My DD tells me STMP will be included in lists of the like.
I agree with your conviction with STMP and think the stock will be much, much higher. The fundamentals and (now) technicals are shaping up very nicely heading into Q4 Release. My DD tells me we will see fireworks Again in reaction to the Release. I also believe this time around STMP will break down the walls in regards to the stock's "Speculative Image"... I think it will be taken more seriously as a Leader (like it deserves). And for the Shorts, don't be the last one to turn out the lights, and lace up your running shoes chasing STMP Higher.
As far as the Shorts/Disbelievers in the company... Fine, to each their own. Stock will do whatever it's suppose to do. I love the fact that STMP has such a high short-ratio just like I loved trading similar leaders-to-be/highfliers like GMCR, NFLX, HANS, AMZN, CRM, BIDU, PNRA, BBBY, CMG, etc.
Oh, and not sure if you trade other stocks (I know you are a buy/hold with STMP)... I'd be up for comparing notes as I maintain a healthy watch-list of stocks I invest in, trade, or at least follow.