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Stamps.com Inc. (STMP) Message Board

  • tolickorclick tolickorclick Feb 9, 2012 6:39 PM Flag

    I missed - But The Company Didn't...

    The bad was on me - I used a Q over Q revenue growth rate of 12% and it was actually dead on with last years Q3 - Q4 rev. growth rate of around 9%...still chuggin right along. So I overguesstimated the top line.

    The other thing I failed to take into account was the 1.6 million share dilution. If I did the math right that would have brought EPS to about 41¢ per share - more in line with what I had expected. My bad if I raised expectations on the EPS number. Shoulda teamed up with Liu and averaged our estimates we would have nailed it. .25 + .42 = 67/2 = 33.5 - helluva lot closer than either one of us got left to our own designs. The company however nailed IT'S high-end projection for EPS for 2011 of 1.40. I find solace knowing that at least they know what they are doing - even if no one out here does.

    The company however, didn't miss a beat. 20% year over year revenue growth aint bad. The biggies were in the customer metrics. Avg. rev. per customer rose by 12.3% over last year, while at the same time the cost to acquire a new customer dropped by about 1% year over year. Sweet - especially when you look at the marketing spend of 8.946 million and $108 cost per gross new registered customers...that translates into almost 83,000 gross new customers in Q4 - again that's going to translate well into the first quarter numbers.

    I guess I won't kick about the dilution as long as all the fundamental metrics keep cooking along like they are. They're spending more on marketing and signing up customers faster and cheaper than ever before, plus the customers are spending more than ever before - the revenue from insurance doubled yoy. Its all good its all going in the right direction...solid and predictable.

    Very nice quarter. Stock price will be subject to swings - just like always, but this one is fundamentally sound and doing just what it needs to keep doing...I don't know about the rest of you, but I would't mind another dividend check...hint hint...Anybody take a look at that tax benefit...that's gotta keep a lot of the cash in the company...repeat after me...divy, divy, divy, - what can I say I've gotten kinda spoiled with the last two...<g>

    The more I see the more comfortable I'm getting. Stock price may still be volatile, but STMP is proving itself reliable...that should earn it some respect on the street...they do what they say they're going to do, and they do it consistently.

    Great quarter and a great year in a hard economy. Good things to come. Buy and Hold - Still Holds...83,000 gross new registered customers is a lot!

    TLOC

    shorty - it was a good quarter - did you like it?

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STMP
31.78+0.37(+1.18%)Sep 16 4:00 PMEDT

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