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  • BreathlessBreasts BreathlessBreasts Oct 5, 1999 8:26 PM Flag

    Svetlana, who you are is not

    that important.

    What do you want us to
    think you are?

    anyway, check your premises and
    you will find the answer. The most important premise
    of yours with which I cannot sympathize is your
    expectation to double your money before Christmas. I can tell
    you that there is no such thing as a sure deal
    trading stocks. If it were a sure deal, the price would
    already be at 80 now.

    STMP will not see 80 until
    they show >50% revenue growth between the next 2
    quarters. My opinion only, of course. However I think we
    will retest recent highs, meaning I think STMP will
    hit >40 soon.

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    • If I was running a home biz, I would have a
      second phone line (or DSL or cable modem), so that I
      could have email and web access at all times anyway.
      Last time I checked a second phone line was like $10 a
      month, and I value my convenience enough such that ten
      bucks would be worth it to me (as well as the $1.99 or
      so for STMP service of course). ;> The expense is
      a business tax write off anyway isn't it?!

    • E-Stamp does NOT use a phone line to validate
      USPS addresses. Instead of doing it via the internet,
      E-Stamp uses a CD-Rom, tying up your CD-ROM instead of
      the phone line. E-Stamp DOES need a phone line for
      purchasing postage, and auditing the vault...

    • Let's see.

      You need an internet
      connection and a computer. And you
      CAN plug in a digital
      scale if you need one.

      Now, you need BOTH
      these things for the E-stamps package,
      PLUS the
      VAULT. Yes, that little $50 attachment that
      to your parallel port, causing all sorts of
      problems -- ala HARDWARE problems.

      Both solutions
      NEED an internet connection to validate
      addresses! It's the E-stamps solution that seems a
      "light" on logic! How do you justify needing everything
      other guy does, and require the pain in the a$$ vault?

      Your answer: I don't want to tie up my single
      phone line.

      That's pretty weak, especially for
      all the people that have
      dedicated internet
      hookups. Or the ones that don't need to be
      talking on
      the phone and printing stamps at the same

      No, the only "light" logic here is the thought
      E-stamps is
      even going to survive very long once goes online.
      Just how many customers has
      E-stamps got during there glorious
      rollout? 10,000?
      That's horrible. They actually plan on
      running a
      business with this?

      Dump your ESTM. Buy some STMP.
      You can thank me later.


    • With the E-Stamp vault I don't tie up my single
      phone line every time I want to print the postage, and
      possibly missing that incoming order. And my HARDWARE
      scale allows me the opportunity to set exact postage,
      saving money and time in line at the post office, behind
      all those people whom don't want to pay the
      convenience fee for PC Postage. The "no hardware" call by the
      STMP proponents is a little light (pun) on logic.

    • What that last message *should have said* at the
      end is:

      I'm not saying this to try and talk
      anyone out of buying ESTM. ESTM will get some percentage
      of the e-postage market, but so far it does not look
      like it will be the big slice of the pie.

      That's one of the problems with computers, they only do
      what we tell them. ;>

    • At first glance buying both ESTM and STMP would
      seem to be a shrewd move. After all how can you lose,
      right? Of course to follow this theory to its logical
      conclusion you should also hedge with PBI.

      This is
      actually a pretty classic probability problem. Would you
      rather have an 65% chance at a $10,000 return or a 35%
      chance at a $100,000 return. There is a correct
      mathematical answer (which has to do with expected return),
      but the solution is left to the reader. ;>
      Investing is more complicated than that since you have to
      determine the risk factors and the return will vary based
      on the stock price.

      IMO, STMP has a better
      product, is positioned better, and ultimately will have a
      bigger market share. Based on that I am not going to
      split up my investment dollars. In other words I'll
      take the lower probability at the higher

      I'm not saying this out to try and talk anyone out of
      buying ESTM. I'm ESTM they will get some percentage of
      the e-postage market, but so far it does not look
      like it will be the big slice of the pie.

    • If you think having MSFT as an investor implies
      better product support, you are fooling yourself. First
      of all an investment by one company in another is
      simply that, an investment. It doesn't mean that those
      companies start sharing resources. It might mean that MSFT
      will push ESTM's product a little harder than it does
      for STMP, but STMP has so far shown itself to be
      pretty agressive about forming partnerships--including
      one with MSFT. MSFT has a stake in Apple too, do you
      think MSFT is helping with their customer

      Secondly, MSFT customer support is nothing to brag about.
      Typically MSFT hires outside companies to provide their
      support anyway. So I'm not sure why you think MSFT
      support would even be a factor.

      I don't know what
      you meant about the "news we are waiting for might
      not come out for months," since STMP will do their
      rollout sometime in the next couple of weeks, I am
      assuming that is the news you are referring to.

      may get some movement out of ESTM during it's IPO
      flourish, but once STMP starts its rollout and mass
      marketing, ESTM will be at somewhat of a disadvantage while
      its QP lasts (25 days from IPO date). After that it
      will all be marketing and numbers. Whichever company
      gets more customers and generates higher revenue will
      be the better investment, end of story. If you think
      ESTM is going to come out on top, I would be
      interested to hear what reasons make you think so (and MSFT
      being a backer isn't good enough).

    • The "hit" you refer to occurs one time (when the
      user first registers), and is asynchronous (that is
      delays don't matter). The license info is submitted to
      thye USPS, and some time later (24 hours or so), the
      USPS sends back a message OK'ing the license.

    • Do not avoid the reality that ESTM has an impact.
      I am
      invetor in and reading this
      message board
      from day one. Now I feel that ESTM has
      much bigger potential
      then STMP in this business,
      they have better product support
      and backup from
      companies like MS. I have sold half of
      STMP and bough
      ESTM, if I am wrong I can always sell
      and come back.
      I think right now ESTM has immediate
      clear up
      side movement and STMP is kind of holding
      breadth as the news we are waiting for is not
      and who know it might not come for months.

      beleive in Stamps, either way ESTM or STMP.

    • I expect at least 85% of those pre-registered
      customers to sign up on a permanant basis. Your notion
      about credit cards is rather old hat. AOL has already
      convinced about 18 or 19 million people to give up their
      credit card numbers on the internet so it is not as
      "scary" as one might think. People trust the USPS with
      their letters and packages everyday, so
      having USPS seal of approval and blessing to operate
      will go a long way in securing initial customer

      Besides, those that preregistered were
      offered bonus postage and they need to activate their
      accounts to get it. That in itself should clinch the deal,
      if you ask me.

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