What do you want us to
think you are?
anyway, check your premises and
you will find the answer. The most important premise
of yours with which I cannot sympathize is your
expectation to double your money before Christmas. I can tell
you that there is no such thing as a sure deal
trading stocks. If it were a sure deal, the price would
already be at 80 now.
STMP will not see 80 until
they show >50% revenue growth between the next 2
quarters. My opinion only, of course. However I think we
will retest recent highs, meaning I think STMP will
hit >40 soon.
If I was running a home biz, I would have a
second phone line (or DSL or cable modem), so that I
could have email and web access at all times anyway.
Last time I checked a second phone line was like $10 a
month, and I value my convenience enough such that ten
bucks would be worth it to me (as well as the $1.99 or
so for STMP service of course). ;> The expense is
a business tax write off anyway isn't it?!
E-Stamp does NOT use a phone line to validate
USPS addresses. Instead of doing it via the internet,
E-Stamp uses a CD-Rom, tying up your CD-ROM instead of
the phone line. E-Stamp DOES need a phone line for
purchasing postage, and auditing the vault...
You need an internet
connection and a computer. And you
CAN plug in a digital
scale if you need one.
Now, you need BOTH
these things for the E-stamps package,
VAULT. Yes, that little $50 attachment that
to your parallel port, causing all sorts of
problems -- ala HARDWARE problems.
NEED an internet connection to validate
addresses! It's the E-stamps solution that seems a
"light" on logic! How do you justify needing everything
other guy does, and require the pain in the a$$ vault?
Your answer: I don't want to tie up my single
That's pretty weak, especially for
all the people that have
hookups. Or the ones that don't need to be
the phone and printing stamps at the same
No, the only "light" logic here is the thought
even going to survive very long once
Stamps.com goes online.
Just how many customers has
E-stamps got during there glorious
That's horrible. They actually plan on
business with this?
Dump your ESTM. Buy some STMP.
You can thank me later.
With the E-Stamp vault I don't tie up my single
phone line every time I want to print the postage, and
possibly missing that incoming order. And my HARDWARE
scale allows me the opportunity to set exact postage,
saving money and time in line at the post office, behind
all those people whom don't want to pay the
convenience fee for PC Postage. The "no hardware" call by the
STMP proponents is a little light (pun) on logic.
What that last message *should have said* at the
I'm not saying this to try and talk
anyone out of buying ESTM. ESTM will get some percentage
of the e-postage market, but so far it does not look
like it will be the big slice of the pie.
That's one of the problems with computers, they only do
what we tell them. ;>
At first glance buying both ESTM and STMP would
seem to be a shrewd move. After all how can you lose,
right? Of course to follow this theory to its logical
conclusion you should also hedge with PBI.
actually a pretty classic probability problem. Would you
rather have an 65% chance at a $10,000 return or a 35%
chance at a $100,000 return. There is a correct
mathematical answer (which has to do with expected return),
but the solution is left to the reader. ;>
Investing is more complicated than that since you have to
determine the risk factors and the return will vary based
on the stock price.
IMO, STMP has a better
product, is positioned better, and ultimately will have a
bigger market share. Based on that I am not going to
split up my investment dollars. In other words I'll
take the lower probability at the higher
I'm not saying this out to try and talk anyone out of
buying ESTM. I'm ESTM they will get some percentage of
the e-postage market, but so far it does not look
like it will be the big slice of the pie.
If you think having MSFT as an investor implies
better product support, you are fooling yourself. First
of all an investment by one company in another is
simply that, an investment. It doesn't mean that those
companies start sharing resources. It might mean that MSFT
will push ESTM's product a little harder than it does
for STMP, but STMP has so far shown itself to be
pretty agressive about forming partnerships--including
one with MSFT. MSFT has a stake in Apple too, do you
think MSFT is helping with their customer
Secondly, MSFT customer support is nothing to brag about.
Typically MSFT hires outside companies to provide their
support anyway. So I'm not sure why you think MSFT
support would even be a factor.
I don't know what
you meant about the "news we are waiting for might
not come out for months," since STMP will do their
rollout sometime in the next couple of weeks, I am
assuming that is the news you are referring to.
may get some movement out of ESTM during it's IPO
flourish, but once STMP starts its rollout and mass
marketing, ESTM will be at somewhat of a disadvantage while
its QP lasts (25 days from IPO date). After that it
will all be marketing and numbers. Whichever company
gets more customers and generates higher revenue will
be the better investment, end of story. If you think
ESTM is going to come out on top, I would be
interested to hear what reasons make you think so (and MSFT
being a backer isn't good enough).
The "hit" you refer to occurs one time (when the
user first registers), and is asynchronous (that is
delays don't matter). The license info is submitted to
thye USPS, and some time later (24 hours or so), the
USPS sends back a message OK'ing the license.
Do not avoid the reality that ESTM has an impact.
invetor in stamps.com and reading this
from day one. Now I feel that ESTM has
much bigger potential
then STMP in this business,
they have better product support
and backup from
companies like MS. I have sold half of
STMP and bough
ESTM, if I am wrong I can always sell
and come back.
I think right now ESTM has immediate
side movement and STMP is kind of holding
breadth as the news we are waiting for is not
and who know it might not come for months.
beleive in Stamps, either way ESTM or STMP.
I expect at least 85% of those pre-registered
customers to sign up on a permanant basis. Your notion
about credit cards is rather old hat. AOL has already
convinced about 18 or 19 million people to give up their
credit card numbers on the internet so it is not as
"scary" as one might think. People trust the USPS with
their letters and packages everyday, so stamps.com
having USPS seal of approval and blessing to operate
will go a long way in securing initial customer
Besides, those that preregistered were
offered bonus postage and they need to activate their
accounts to get it. That in itself should clinch the deal,
if you ask me.