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James River Coal Şirketi Message Board

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  • bullcoach_1 bullcoach_1 Jan 14, 2012 6:22 PM Flag


    nice post, thanks

    I remember reading an article few months ago about India coal demand and only having enough reserves for 3-4months. That alone says a great deal.

    Coal sector is 100% imho bottoming out, there is a good chance we can have a great run that will pass 2011 highs. Look at the charts, 2008 stock went from $4 to $60 (JRCC).


    smart investors are loading up!

    keep in mind:
    -low float
    -MC very low
    -JRCC's acquisitions
    -Possible takeover
    -short covering

    I'm sure there are more catalysts to cause the stock price to move up.

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    • If i were to throw my additional two cents:

      I don't think JRCC will be acquired. If you analyze historical acquisitions, most acquisitions happen at a peak (a.k.a. greed) and rarely at the bottom (a.k.a fear). So I would not hang my hat on that one.

      Some months back JRCC acquired a coal trading company. This i believe is a terrific move which is underestimated by market analysts (who look for short-term triggers). It is one thing to own the coal but a different ballgame to be able to 'connect' the demand with the supply.

      India is a case in point. One of the most difficult markets to crack. If you read the concall transcripts + presentations, it will come out that JRCC is positioned well to advance in that market (and that acquisition brought relationships in India). 30% of JRCC coal shipments go to India (if i were to believe the JRCC presentation that is up there on their site).

      Somebody on the message board pointed out Debt. The one thing i would say that JRCC management did well was to dilute at high prices (around $23 levels). One can only imagine what would have happened if the Management had refused and had stuck to Debt.

      Well as i said, the stars are all aligning. I have only two doubts:
      1) Europe and what it can do to sentiment (Fear/Greed again) and
      2) Management - have they got the ability to deliver consistently?

      Time will tell. Meanwhile we sit back and wait. Cheers !