Do I have the back-of-the-envelope numbers right...."malum_stupidium"??
OB has about 95 million shares? WTM owns almsot 76% of OB. So that means WTM owns 72 million shares OB? Right so far??
Let's subtract that from shares out, of 95 million...that leaves about 23 million shares float.
But OHHH NOOOO...stupidium....institutions own 19,500,000.
Let's subtract that ownership from float. 23 minus 19.5. That leaves about 3,500,000 tradeable shares. Management and the BOD own perhaps 500,000 shares. So that brings it down to <<<3,000,000 shares>>>. that are tradeable and not held by institutions of WTM or mgmt/BOD.
But if OB tells MER that they want to buy back 3-4 million shares in 2011....and there is only 3 million or so, shares floating around not already owned....WHAT could happen to OB share price? And more people like me want to buy OB because it is almopst at book and yeilds 6.25%.... and what if MER upgrades OB stock, as I expect they will by Q1 or Q2..and there are only 3 million shares around???
PLEASE..let's save "malum_stupidium" from himself. He may to need it. Circle around and pray, "kumbayah"....
Nap time, I think. I sleep very sound with some cheap OB in back pocket. What about you shortie?
It seems malum_stupidium woke up from his nap.... grumpy.. Why......dear me.....he has nothing to say. That must mean I'm wrong. OB doesn't have a 6.2% div and OB isn't selling just above book. Nor does WTM own 76% of OB...nor do other institutions own 19.5 million shares of OB. So I guess I fibbed that only leaves around a 3 million share unspoken for float.
Guess I also fibbed that OB is all specialty lines now. Guess I fibbed that the combined ratios in those lines has been below 95%. Guess I lied that combined ratios below 100 means they are making good money.
I think what OB reports in Q1 and Q2 2011 will perhaps change a lot of investors and analysts minds.
In the meantime, I betcha that OB is buying back shares at this level. And poor malum_stupidium... may be short. And OB is kinda a thin stock. Witness.what..about a 50 cent range on Friday??