Statistically speaking, looking, your chance to see share price doubling before Thanksgiving is infinitely small. At the same time, chance to see the same price halving during the same period is good enough. It’s likely less than 50% because timing is too tight. If you would be kind to add few months, e.g. until the end of Q1 2014, then halving chance becomes better than 50%.
Your recent straw (Madsen sale) is weak because it is about impossible to find a buyer (entity willing to pay cash) for Madsen in this market. It is still possible to find someone willing to take care of project expenses; i.e. taking ownership stake for 100% commitment to spend money there and continue project development. However, it is not something that could help to solve cash crunch in near-term.