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ENERGY PARTNERS LTD Message Board

  • metooheretoo metooheretoo Dec 20, 2004 12:36 AM Flag

    grand cache coal

    I give up...
    I will keep my stock picks to myself from now on....
    it's funny...I posted on another board that gce.to looked ready to explode when it hit 7.50 and sure enough it ran up to 14 in 2 weeks or so...quite a few people on that board said ah no way, too extended, upstart coal company, bla bla bla.........the problem is nobody wants to double their money anymore...anyway....
    watch and learn as gce.to climbs higher and faster than epl in the very near future.....
    metoo

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    • that was an "unchanged" credit rating by S&P, healthy pullback to 19.70, up from here.

    • I added on the dip. A downgrade by Moodys is a buy signal IMO. Now the upgrade by S&P is the one that counts. 2005 will be a very good year to EPL longs.

    • I said I was'nt worried if a pullback to 19.50.Shorts might have their way for a day.Smith Bar downgraded VLO , 2 other refiners to hold, all the sheeple gave them what they wanted!, cheaper shares for the anal-cysts.

    • In the past EPL hasn't been affected by bearish CL #'s as its mostly a NG play. We shall see. gl to all

    • I know your thinking CNXT, etc, the way to play that would be the telecom holder, get that symbol @ www.amex.com,or probably an I-Share, get that @ IShares.com good idea, take care.holder better, I think, whatever trades more shares.I don't like those etfs that trade less than 300K a day, a big seller can push it down.

    • RIO chart pretty extended, always look for pullbacks to 10 or 20dma to get in, sometimes it won't pullback to the 20 or 21 day moving ave if it's a powerful stock.Get those numbers @ www.marketedge.com, est '05 is 2.66/sh, Goldman thinks could surprise to upside, only neg is it IS Brazil. BRY has had a big run from 20, I remember looking at it @ 16 and thinking "it's in Bakersfield"?north from here in San Diego, est is 3.38 '05 times 20% growth= $67 value.I would hold, definitely, small yield price to sales 4.4 is high but they have very little debt and as you might know, they are raising all kinds of hell in Bakersfield because Shell wants to close a(the ONLY) refinery there, politicians want it kept open, that might be helping BRY, maybe thats where their crude goes.

    • you've been doing well...and a little luck always comes in handy too....do you think RIO still has some play into 2005? Is it a hold or a buy in your opinion...
      also....
      what do you think of BRY...does it look like it's getting extended to you?...I just bought a couple of weeks ago and it seems to be tanking...
      I am also re-looking to add some more coal stocks as I'm thinking we'll get some more action there in the new year....also, the rail companies that ship the stuff...for some reason I have never had luck with raw material, gas and oil companies, even though others have...am hoping epl changes the trend...would be interested to know if you would recommend a buy on RIO...



      also, I think an interesting play for next year would be to buy a bunch of the smaller US telecom companies as this sector is quickly becoming commoditized...ie...pick a bunch, lets say 10 of the best ones with stock prices in the $2-$8 range...and then wait for them to be picked off in acquisitions...there's all kinds of discussions on a lot of the boards to this effect...some of them aren't very pretty stocks but all you need is to pick the right 2 or 3 out of the bunch to make it all worthwile..anyway, something I've been thinking about...It's just an idea, thought I would pass it along...I'm not recommending it, just thinking out loud...in the end the entire sector looks like it might have a good year or 2 ahead anyway...
      let me know your thoughts....

      metoo

    • I was in PHI Phillipine telco, got out @ $25, chart gapped down leaving an island top, very bearish.It went to 22.30 after that, then big typhoon hit there.My big winner is RIO, CVRD, the world's largest iron ore producer, in 200sh @24, hit another all-time hi again today plus pays 5.3% div and payed specials too.10-yr ore contracts with Japan &Korea, Germany wants to build a steel plant there, they say its cheaper to ship steel slabs to Europe than ore, just announced a new test factory will test 2 yr project to produce metalurgic copper.We came to the conclusion if you use $73Cdn/ton cost on $150Cdn/ton contracts for GCE, thats about $4.00Cdn/share earnings per share on 37mill shares in the float. All the guys here and on stockhouse.ca bullboards want to give it a 10-15 multiple, making it a $40 stock, or more. I had a bid in on my Waterhouse @ 13.15 US, and it did'nt fill because it's the pinks (GACHF.PK) I don't have time to watch it, I know limit orders don't fill right away, so I pulled it, $16Cdn or $13 looks like where it might be headed, I really don't want to spend time w/ Waterhouse setting up Toronto trading.I bought Energy Split EGYSF that way, no problem.What's funny is it is a 17% yield until they takeout 15% Canadian withhldg and the exchangerate, it came out 12% on my 400 shares I bought @ 13.20, I'm up 1.00 plus the divvy, takecare, thanks for the symbols.

    • Ok, I read they are contracted to sell 1.3mill tons of coal to Korea & Japan for $125/ton (US dollars) does that equal $2.71 in eps for '05? That's a HELLOVA BIG ?.

      • 1 Reply to irenderit
      • My old broker, Piper Jaffray, always told me to stay away from the Toronto Exchange. Not enough transparency, and Co's on it have been known to lie. Just today a small chip stock reported that a Taiwan Co. hasn't paid a 4.6 million dollar bill. Not saying this is happening with cache coal but theres a lot of chenanigans going on with Aisia. I like good old US Co's on good old US exchanges, even then there is risk. gl

    • metooheretoo

      Please do not give up. I, for one, values your stock pick and hope you will continue to post your selections on this board. Good luck to you!
      pp

 

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