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CommonWealth Reit Message Board

  • bluelivermore bluelivermore Mar 6, 2012 12:23 PM Flag

    MNR reverse split in 2009 or 2010?

    It was trading under $5 per share in 2009/2010 which made it no longer marginable at most big brokers.

    When you take into account the 4 or 5 to 1 reverse split CWH is way underwater.

    Next time do some at least general research, before making exaggerated claims about price appreciatation.

    Even if the $9 IPO number held water, at 5 to 1 reverse split that would $45.
    If it is 4 to 1 it is $36.
    which means you are at least 50% underwater. Low end.
    I'll let the others fill you in on the finer details.

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    • Jumps-

      Seriously. Your credibility is zero.

      My total pretax value-including dividends since buying and trading reit stocks (preferred and common) beginning in March 2009 has increased by 673%. Granted, my timing was virtually perfect. My biggest killing was buying bdn common which tripled in value in 3 months. Then I sold one share of bdn to buy 2+ shares of lxp.

      I paid a lot of $ in short term gains except for the shares purchased by my IRA.

      A once in a lifetime opportunity.

      Good luck. Change your handle.

    • Seriously. Go invest in what you want. End of the day all that matter is result. I am up nearly 40% this year. I already withdrew $250k and along with my $150k I had from past 2 Q's I purchased 3 condos. One is rented, the other two I am working on. On top of that my stock portfolio is still $200k higher than the start of the year. All this started with $50k in 2008. But according to you I dont know anything about finance... How is your portfolio?

    • Jumps-

      Like i said-you dont have a clue.

      Compound interest rates have nothing to do with after tax returns.

      So you got that wrong.

      And if the residual value of the real estate did not change then a compound return would require that the dividends be reinvested at a 20% return.

      So you got that wrong.

      Since you are assuming that your investment made exactly 20% per year (preposterous) then you are assuming that the residual value of the investment did not change. So obviously you did not take into consideration the enhanced or reduced value of the investment at the end of the 23 year term.

      And without a very, very significant increase in the residual there is not a reit in the world that produces a 20% dividend per year. Unfortunately, when cwh sells at a 50% reduction in shareholder equity the residual has been significantly impaired.

      So you got that wrong.

      My suggestion-change your handle.

      Good luck.

    • Btw asking the difference between compound returns and regular (simple) return doesnt help you at all. Either way you did something wrong and I know exactly where it is (you are using incorrect numbers probably purposely so you dont look dumb).

      To get compound return on a dividend paying stock you need to take out taxes and assume that rest of the dividend is being reinvested via something like a drip account. This, obviously, is stupid and should never be done (sorry drip investors but a duck is a duck).

      My calculation is your gain from initial investment yearly over the life of the stock if you owned it from inception till today. Basically, if you invested $100, you would have made exactly $20 yearly every year till today. Simple. Can make it any simpler than that.

    • Everyone has a financial calculator online. I wrote my own years ago and I have an appraisers licence too (along with real estate brokers license and a mortgage broker licence grandfathered in before they changed the rules).

      Tell me exactly what numbers you used to get that percentage. Tell me what keys you pressed as well. Stop dodging the question. I know exactly what every key on your calculator means and exactly how to recreate it.

    • Jumps-

      1) What is the difference between a compounded 20% return and your 20% return?? Are you talking about an internal rate of return??? What is a 20% return mean over a period of 23 years if it is not compounded?????

      2) What would be the point of showing you the keystrokes on an hp 12c calculator when you dont even own a financial calculator????? The calculation involves computing the IRR on 23 separate income streams (dividends) combined with the return represented by the enhanced value of the residual (market value of the real invested funds 23 years hence).

      Having done hundreds of these calculations in my appraisal, mortgage banking and consulting background I instinctively know what a 20% irr should look like. But truthfully I have never done one that would approach a 20% irr unless it was highly leveraged.

      I did the calculations and the Irr was 1.987% over the 23 year period.

      Take it or leave it-I dont care. I told you to get a calculator and do your own calculation. The hp 12c costs $70. Surely a heavy hitter like you could afford that.

      Or, since you have invented a calculator-invent your own financial calculator.

      Put up or shut up.

      Good luck. Nice hearing from you.

    • Re dividend reduction. As you already know, its not up to them. They cant just reduce the div because they feel like it. From their own Q3 last year:

      "Well covered dividend at 51.5% FFO and 86.5% AFFO payout ratio for September 30, 2011"

      From Q4 we got:

      "CommonWealth REIT (NYSE: CWH) reported Q4 FFO of $0.76, $0.09 worse than the analyst estimate of $0.85. Rental income for the quarter came in at $241.55 million versus the consensus estimate of $240.8 million."

      As you can see the dividend isnt just well covered, its more likely to increase than decrease if they can reduce costs and if the economy actually corrects and occupancy increases and they take a short breather from restructuring their portfolios (so that investors stop looking at them like boogieman).

      The thing with CWH is that the money is there. The income is there too. The problem is all the "dust." This is why its discounted. People also dont like the management (I dont either) but that doesnt make them wrong or bad.

    • I said average 20% return based on todays price. YOU said compound not me. Dont put words in my mouth and I am still WAITING for you to put some numbers down so we can laugh at you.

      As McGuire stated, "SHOW ME THE NUMBERS!" Where is your math? Why do you keep dodging it?

    • Jumps-

      You are a dope.

      Maintaining that any reit earned a compounded return of 20% since 1988 is beyond common sense.

      No such reit exists. Especially cwh which has taken such a huge hit to its value that its current stockholders equity represents 50% of its market cap.

      Sorry but your calculations are an amateurish exhibit of simplistic numbers.

      Get a financial calculator and learn something. Your 2500% enhancement in the
      portfolio of stocks you supposedly own is a total joke.

      Time to grow up.

      Good luck. Keep posting.

    • Youre just wasting our time. You keep saying they lost money. Put it on paper and let us look at the numbers. Then do another calcu for MNR. Do not reply until you give me the math else youre full of hot air. Pick real dates and the prices on those dates and use real dividend payments dont just make up numbers.

      Ok thanks. You lost this argument mathematically a very long time ago. The last few posts have been me trying to tell you that splits dont make any difference thus whatever calc you are using, its wrong since you claim there is a loss from splits.

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