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CommonWealth Reit Message Board

  • esoxlucios esoxlucios Mar 15, 2013 3:48 PM Flag

    short term analysis

    According to Bloomberg, C&R amended their Complaint in Maryland state court to seek to have the recent bylaw amendments invalidated. If it is correct that the Complaint was amended, and this is not part of a preliminary injunction hearing, then that issue will not be decided until when and *if* the case goes to trial, which would be many months away. The shareholders' meeting is in May, which means that it is improbable this will be settled by then. So, absent any other news (there is a news release about this about every 3-4 trading sessions, it seems), today's news created an excellent short-term opportunity to short (which I did), and the shares will drift lower until the next news story comes along.

    Moreover, even if these bylaw amendments were set aside, they still need 66.6% of the shareholders' consent to remove Board members, correct? At last count, Corvix, Related, Luxor, and Perry make up only 23%, at most. Sill need another 43% of sharholder votes. There's a long time between now and any judicial action or legitimate shareholder action, during which time I do not see a lot of upside to the share prices. Of course, I may be wrong (I often am) and welcome other opinions and analysis.

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    • esoxlucious, Go read my post under the topic about "1/3rd of shares held in..". It is the last post, and in response to your post. I don't think you saw it. Basically, my case for potential upside is that if Corvex et al are successful in tossing RMR/CWH management, the stock will trade at a multiple of book value of perhaps 1.4 or 1.5 times book, which is in line with many peers. Currently, and in the past, with RMR in place under the current board, CWH has traded at a marked discount to book value. If RMR dissappears, so will the discount to book value. That said, if RMR and the current board are successful (and I think they may have strategically placed that new 40% dilutive share issue in friendly hands--an investment house or group-- that will vote to keep them in) you will see the old steep discount reemerge. Perhaps 50% of book value would be a target in the case of no change in management. Big upside and big downside. Also, I think they annpunce a divy cut which could pressure down in the mean time. Good luck with your short.