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Tommy Hilfiger Corp. (TOM) Message Board

  • canel5 canel5 Dec 19, 2002 5:30 PM Flag

    intrinsic value is $8,35

    according my balance sheet & future cash flow aproach under Ben Graham criterias stock is 8,35. I buy generaLLy half of thi intrinsic value. So I will wait 4,17. If it comes I know I will make good money on this stock.
    Trick is being PATIENT !!!

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    • Ok then hold. I guess fagboy must be doing something right if it bounces north.

      But don't count on it. Consumer confidence has come down drastically and holiday sales are forecast to be dismal.

      That and the fact uncertainty about the spector of war and war itself when it comes will drive thing down further at least in the short term.

      Expect a big bounce up in the markets about 3 days after the war starts and it becomes obvious Hussein is a dead man.

      So my advice, wait for the low point right before war, buy TOM at 2 and ride it to 15.

    • Fagboy is making 22 million a year from this company. How much are you making from it? Or shall I say losing?

      Hey, no argument on fagboy.

      But even this POS should get back to 15 a year or 2 from now.

      Question is how low can it go before that?

      Jan anf Feb are gonna be REAL bad for the market.

      I say 2's for TOM.

      SELL NOW.

    • Hey, why should he care? It's his company. He can take as much money as he wants. If you don't like it SELL.

      You would do the same thing in his position and you know it.

    • I agree the stock price is low based on P/E, but don't buy based on book value. Most of the book value is from intangible assets, not hard assets. The tangible book value is only a few dollars a share at most.

      • 1 Reply to spinaltap3891
      • I calculate liquidation value as follows ;

        Cash & Equivalents 392 x 1.00 = 392
        Total Receivable 196 x 0,70 = 137
        Total Inventory 270 x 0,50 = 135
        Other Current Assets 90 x 0,70 = 63
        Property/Plant/Equip 303 x 0,20 = 61
        Other Long Term Assets 10 x 0,70 = 7
        Total Assets at liquidation = 795
        All Liabilities = 1092
        Net Asset Value after lqdton = - 297
        Shares Outstanding = 90.58
        Per Share liquidation value = -3.27

        I take next year eps est. 1,24
        I take 10 year growth rate 10 %
        I take discount rate 10% (conservative)
        Future Value of TOM = 11.62
        Per Share liquidation value = -3.27
        Intrinsic Value of TOM = 8.35
        Margin of Safety 8.35 x 0.5 = 4.17

        GeneraLLy I take MOS 0.66 like Graham but on this market envoirement why not wait for a while more.

        P.S : Sorry for my broken english as I am Turkish and live in Istanbul

    • Seems a little low, what cash flow and discount rate are you using?