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Midstates Petroleum Company, Inc. Message Board

  • lagrandpro lagrandpro Apr 4, 2013 2:09 PM Flag

    valuation

    66 million shares + approx 30 million from the mandatory convertible shares from the Miss. acquisition + approx 21 million from a new placement for $150million = 117 million shares
    Current 694 million debt +additional 600 million = approx $1.3 Billion debt
    Using the 117 shares @ $6.90 and $1.3 B debt = $18 per share
    30000 BBLOE/day X $70,000 = $2.1B =approx $18/share
    BUT---This does not factor growth prospects
    At $18/sh 369,000 apparently productive and liquid-rich acres are priced at $5,707/acre
    At $18/sh 111.9M proven BblOE = $18.82/Bbl in the ground

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    • The value per flowing value is somewhat imprecise. Take BCEI around $1.7 billion EV, vs around $2 billion for MPO. BCEI's guidance for this year is 16kboe'd, $105k / barrel. MPO is around 25kboed avg this year. BCEI is over a $100 per flowing barrel avg for the year. MPO might not have exact comparable potential but it shouldn't be in the $70s. At $100/ flowing barrel, you get $11 per share.

      • 2 Replies to harehau
      • According to CC, the Panther acquisition is an economics play with performance and cost measures in the CLEVELAND formation similar to the Lime....300 bod/600 boed avg. per well. Past presentation with the Mississippian Lime demonstrates an IRR of 100%, so at first glance, this looks goodl!. A quick look at the other formations notes an Apache test well with IP of 890 bod in the Cottage Grove formation. For the Marmaton, "Plano’s seven Marmaton completions averaged IPs of 1,014 b/d of oil equivalent, and the company reports exceptional economics" ....found in a Plano Petroleum announcement from last year. Chesapeake and others are here as well. Appears to have stacked play potential, but this was not emphasized on the call.

      • I sure wish I could predict what the cash flow and EBITDA will be. Before this acquisition, at $8 and 694 Mill debt I had figured $8.90 cost per $1 of Cash Flow which is great for a growing E&P, and a ratio of 3.3 of Market valuation to EBITDA, which is super.