So, similar to Boogie, I'm estimating 30,000 Boe/d exit rate in 2013. I also estimate 50% growth next year for a 2014 exit rate of 45,000 Boe/d. This would put average 2014 production at 37,500 Boe/d. My question is basically, is this more or less in line with others. I'm also estimating (conservatively I think) 50% oil not counting NGL's (15-20% is my guess). This would put 2014 revenue at $616 million from oil alone.
I think your estimate on a 30,000 Boe/d is reasonable.. I myself can not wait for a production or earnings release for some discussion on the matter.. I also think the discussion of the miss lime being Variable in Geology is a strong valid statement.. it the geology would have been that easy to figure out and harvest the oil in place , it would have been done by now.. don
Take LPI as a comparator, they have a market cap of $2.7 billion, enterprise value of $4 billion, a good company, great Permian position. Their avg prod now is around 35kb/d, their enterprise value is around $114k per daily flowing barrel. If you assume 45k/d '14 exit rate for MPO and use the $114k/b LPI number, assuming debt of $2 billion and 100 mm shares, the stock price should be $30+. The Permian is more oily but seems MPO is continues to be very undervalued. My $10+ expectation seems conservative.