you are viewing a single comment's thread.view the rest of the posts
Buy-out hopes ARE on a lot of message boards now. Investors really want the trend to be their friend, but decisions
(buy-out or otherwise) are often only obvious in retrospect./
Coal has its problems, which should make it a good value play,
but what does it have to offer as a buy-out to a another firm,
like the WSJ does to Murdock?/ Inquiring minds want to know,
please reply./ The Huss/ P.S. I have a stop-loss on this and all my other stocks starting the first of May, following the advice of THE STOCK TRADERS'ALMANAC. My sell cost at
Vanguard will be $48. I try to be a buy-and-hold investor.
Buy-out firms typically look for companies that are non-cyclical, have predictable cash flow, and low debt. Big firms are also looking to purchase smaller firms either to enhance their market position or to enter into a new segment. I don't feel that BTU fits either of these requirements. BTU is an excellent company, but is too big to get bought out now, especially with the anti-global warming push now in congress. Also, BTU is NOT an electric utility or considered to be part of that market segment . . .
and when baseball teams look for starting pitching, they look for good K/BB ratios, youth, durability - guess what, all of those guys are already signed and making 10MM/year...
20 billion bucks is a pretty trivial price for the future dominant provider of ALL of america's energy needs.
Mergers and aquisitions are the only thing driving the market. In the electric utility sector - which I consider BTU to be a part of - that is all that's going on. If you own a small private utiliy you have been or are about to be taken over in the largest and most comprehensive consolidation in history.
That is why everyone is talking about being aquired.
As far as what other companies might see in BTU I would suggest that coal is one of the very few commodities that has yet to be taken right off the charts by this incredible world wide bull market. BTU owns the best reserves on earth. There is an opportunity to get control of a commodity BEFORE it gets inflated beyond belief like copper or nickel or gold or oil or corn or you name it.
Rio Tinto now in play? 7 times larger than BTU.
European Stocks Climb, Led by Rio, BHP on Takeover Outlook
By Andreas Hippin
May 9 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks advanced, led by mining companies, on speculation Rio Tinto Group will receive a bid from larger rival BHP Billiton Ltd.
Takeovers ``are going to continue as long as we still see massive liquidity,'' said Alan Brown, who oversees $229 billion as head of investments at Schroders Plc in London. ``Nobody is immune. There is so much money out there ready to pounce.''
BNP Paribas SA pushed banks higher after the French company's earnings topped analyst estimates. Carlsberg A/S rose the most in a year after the brewer unexpectedly posted a first- quarter profit.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index rose 0.1 percent to 390.26 at 10:40 a.m. in London. The Stoxx 50 climbed 0.3 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 13 nations sharing the euro, added 0.2 percent.
Asian stocks rose to a record, led by commodity producers and steelmakers, on expectations this year's record pace of takeovers will be sustained. Merger deals in Europe have totaled $1.05 trillion so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They reached a record $1.6 trillion last year.
National benchmarks gained in 12 of 18 western European markets except Iceland. Germany's DAX, France's CAC 40 and the U.K.'s FTSE-100 all added 0.2 percent.
Rio gained 5.5 percent to 3,488 pence, the most since June 2006, as investors bet BHP, the world's largest mining company, is considering a bid. BHP added 2.4 percent to 1,213 pence.
``Rio Tinto is not aware of any takeover approach from BHP Billiton,'' Stephen Consedine, the company secretary, said in a response to a query from the Australian Stock Exchange.
BHP could afford a $100 billion plus offer for Rio Tinto, Citigroup Inc. said May 4. A five-year rally in metal prices has sparked 473 deals or bids in the industry this year, valued at $55.4 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
``We have people looking at a lot of different things,'' BHP's president of carbon steel Chris Lynch said in Melbourne today when asked about any bid for Rio Tinto. ``We won't comment on specific potential targets.''
BHP could receive a bid from a private-equity group, Lynch said. ``There's a lot of money looking for a home,'' Lynch, who wants to become BHP's next chief executive officer, said. ``I don't think you can dismiss it entirely.''
Kazakhmys Plc, Kazakhstan's biggest copper producer, rose 2.6 percent to 1,208 pence. Vedanta Resources Plc, India's largest copper producer, added 2.5 percent to 1,420 pence.
``Takeovers are set to reach a new record in volume this year, boosting equity markets,'' said Helge Rechberger, the head of equity-market research at Raiffeisen Zentralbank in Vienna. ``Investors like to see companies buying others at a premium, especially when they pay in cash.''
Interesting stuff. If a company that large can be a buy-out target there's no reason why big money wouldn't set their sights on BTU.
$75-$80 per share would be tempting (just my idle speculation).
Anyone who does the basic homework--with accompanying insight & foresight--can see that with every passing day, coal is becoming more and more important and indespensible.