Nah...not even a chance. High 20's ? Possible, but I doubt it.
Watch closely: a huge diff between thermal and met coal. Do some DD on who is providing which type (per BTU quality), and who is getting the LT contracts. Wanna take a guess ? Do you know where most of the thermal coal is going ? Where most of the met coal is going ? Do you know who is extracting most of each ? If you do NOT know, you should not be shorting the stock. If you ARE shorting, use staggered upside stops, and make sure they are market orders so you do not get bypassed.
Do some research, then come back.
Simple. If you are SO SURE this stock will decrease by 50% then short it. Sell EVERYTHING you own and short it. Good luck! I just bought 5000 over the last couple of days...avg about 33. I will buy more at 29 and down every 2 from there..I HOPE! I see 40 before that though.