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Peabody Energy Corp. Message Board

  • southbuckeye southbuckeye Apr 5, 2012 12:17 PM Flag

    RUN in St Louis

    Run: what do you think of the Motley Fools article out today implying that because of Chinese fracking of natural gas they won't need as much imported coal in the future than was originally thought. Coal exports are the one thing that BTU has, that the other U.S.domestic coal companies don't appear to have. Is this something that might change your view of BTU?

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    • Strictly on financials, using a 10% discount to EPS (see below):

      ======================

      FY 12' EPS Estimate = $2.84
      FY 13' EPS Estimate = $4.29

      Discounting 12' and 13' by 10% we arrive at:

      FY 12' EPS Estimate = $2.56
      FY 13' EPS Estimate = $3.86

      Assuming a reasonable P/E of 13.5, P/2.56 = 13.5 I arrive at:

      FY 12' PPS = $34.56
      FY 13' PPS = $52.11 (using the same P/E formula)

      ======================

      But it's really all about FEAR and GREED. FEAR mode is entrenched. GREED will kick-in at some future point when the fracking problem news becomes more prominent, the ports are opened, etc.

      Sorry I don't have a true answer to your query,

      HR

    • Run: Is BTU as underpriced today at 28, as it was overpriced at 73 last April?

    • So very true.

      My point(s) are simple, the contrarians are coming out of the woodwork signaling the death of coal (thermal). I have not seen an argument pertaining to the death of Met where the margins really are. Thermal is projected to decrease in the US by only 1.3% per year. Fracking isn't working as planned in many parts of the world. China and India can't mine enough of their own coal.

      We are a far cry from the death of coal.

      BTW - How are all those NatGas powered car sales coming?

      Good-luck.

      HR

    • Good question. The Chinese are extremely adept at "copying". However, I do not know how much methane they have trapped nor have I seen projections, guess I should look at worldwide estimates. If you have a link I am all fingers (guess all ears is a thing of the past).

      No way I know of to make steel from NatGas so far ... Met is safe for the time being.

      Let me know.

      HR

    • The Chinese have a big problem with water. It will only get bigger, and they can't afford to use it on the same level as our drillers. Clean water is a more important commodity.

    • The same Motley Fool, that had an article 2 days ago saying buy Peabody.

 
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