Pay about $17/share for ANR, ALL payable in BTU stock. Assume ANR's debt and problems. This would result in BTU owning more met coal. ANR shareholders may go for it too, because they would be trading cheap ANR stock for cheap BTU stock in a better, bigger, more geographically diversified company. Then BTU should expand the ANR met coal export facilities in the USA. Helps BTU set up well for the long term.
Um, ANR lost 27c last quarter, and cut production so expect even bigger losses in q2. If coal doesn't bounce quickly, BTU will be able to buy assets from bankrupt coal companies for pennies on the dollar. Why pay full price right now?
I don't think ANR will go bankrupt. NG prices will go higher soon, because it is not profitable at current prices. Also, worldwide coal consumption will increase. Just a matter of time before the good coal companies bounce back. First quarter coal company earnings will come out on 5/15/12. Then we will be able to get a better picture of what is happening.