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  • dlhild May 16, 2012 1:00 PM Flag

    Going lower first...Much higher long term

    Its not coming to an end, but it is going to feel like it. Things that can't go on forever don't. The countries in Europe, the UK, the US, and Japan have enormous and fast growing public debt. To tax more, or spend less, has a slowing effect on growth. So the developed economies are in a "catch-22". If they cut spending they fall on their face. If they stay on the current path they fall on their face. Only one country in history has dug out from these debt levels, and that was England in the 1800's. But they had two little things help them. The ended the Napoleonic war and had the industrial revolution come along to help them out. Maybe from higher debt levels the developed world can recover without much pain, but I doubt it.

    Then remember we have a multi-year sort things out process occurring in Japan, UK, US, and Europe. The developing world is going to help with world growth, but the large industrialized economies are going to have slow growth and high structural unemployment for a long time. The USA of Mexico probably.

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