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Peabody Energy Corp. Message Board

  • gray1808 gray1808 Apr 23, 2013 6:58 PM Flag

    "EIA: Wrong on Coal Forecasts" - Seeking Alpha

    There is an interesting article on Seeking Alpha today with an analysis of the EIA 2013 coal forecast.

    The bottom line is that coal inventories will be sharply lower by the end of the 2013 allowing for coal prices to spike.

    If you are a coal investor you should look at the article

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    • Gray;
      I could be wrong or maybe I had an illusuion but, I think I read somewhere that Natural Gas spiked because the EIA underestimated Nat Gas stock piles.

      • 2 Replies to ford30cabriolet
      • One reason that natural gas prices are rising is that the storage has declined too rapidly when the weather this winter has not really been that cold. It appears that natural gas production could already by in decline even though the EIA natural gas forecasts are for a gradual increase in production for 2013.

        The critics have pointed out that the dry gas rig count has collapsed in the last 12 months so how can production be increasing considering the high depletion rates of shale gas wells?

        Keep in mind that if the EIA is off by 5% in their supply estimates, both coal and gas markets can have violent price swings in a hurry.

        We are going to have an interesting summer as the weather heats up and will find out if there is really as much natural gas and coal as the EIA forecasts.

      • I believe I mispoke.
        What I meant to say above is, that the EIA led us all to believe there was higher nat gas inventories than there acually was.

 
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