share your perspectives on long-term BTU share value
We all have a unique perspective on what we'd be happy with in the long term as a return on our investments, including BTU. I know the biggest mistakes I've made in the past were selling too soon, because I was happy with a 30 or 50% return on a stock. When in fact, I should have taken a more detached view and realized my Basis was irrelevant to what I should be considering selling at.
I know many on here purchased BTU in the 30's, others in the 20's, a lucky few in the mid Teens, and some of us have made share purchases everywhere in between in the past year.
The challenge will be to sit tight and realize the full value of this investment. Looking at the 5 & 10-year chart, and considering:
1. Acquisitions made over the past 4 years
2. Cost improvements made over the past 4 years
3. Production constraints resulting from deep cuts in capital investment among all coal companies
4. Increased global consumption (I know it is hard to believe but its true)
5. The inevitable rise in coal prices
My perspective is I'd like to make some sales in the 50's or 60's in the next 4 years. I would certainly adjust that higher if new information warrants.
For what its worth; I believe that last two sentences are highly likely based on this: why else would the new President and COO (Kellow) have came to Peabody, from BHP if not to ride the wave back up in a big way with all his stock options? He's a smart guy.
2x in the past 5 years, I have missed out on $1MM in capital gains by sacrificing the long term potential (when I knew I had a winner) for decent mid-5 figure shorter term gains. It ain't gonna happen again! I am currently sitting on nearly $200K in BTU and a lesser amount in KOL and won't settle for less than seeing the $200K in BTU (which is in the black at current prices) being valued at $500K (a roughy a $50 PPS not including dividends). IMO, it will happen in a few years, and I am willing to wait. Funny, but taking $50 may be missing out on the big $$. Only time will tell.