1. Uglier by the week. Even I have become cynical.
2. Finance ministers meeting today, discussion measures including a Eurobond. It is my humble opinion the ECB cannot buy enough debt at market, as institutions will simply unload to the ECB to cut the risk.
3. In case you have not read, hedge funds have been trying to corner near-term Greek debt at low prices to force the government to pay at par or invoke the CDS's. These kind of situations are made for manipulation for profit, and they need rules to stop it (like shorting suspension, revision of CDS instruments). I has appeared to me that shady trading move to Italy, for instance, to force the issue on CDS.
4. Oh, on bankingnews.gr a note that BNP bank that is advising banks on the swap, well BNG has also positioned itself to benefit from a collapse of the sovereigns. (apparently they took a class from Goldman Sachs.....)
5. NBG bank lost only 9 million dollars first 9 months. This of course excludes sovereign losses. But, it is pretty darn good in that economy.
A giant game of kick the can. Wait and hope that something good happens. It is only human. This is the third crisis I've lived through and admittedly the worst. The oil boom/bust/inflation of the late 70's took 10 years to come to a form of stability. Telecom (check JDSU and ALU) has taken 10 years to stabilize. This financial crisis is much larger and more complex than the previous two. Interest rates have been on a 30 year down trend, so banks and investments have made out great on the hold to maturity, but now the rates are too low, but the government cannot afford it's debt payments if rates go up. With the exception of those that don't need debt, every one from governments, businesses, and consumers have moved to the short end of the debt curve to take the low short term rates, over indulged and now are frozen out of the longer term financing market. I have to wonder what/who are buying 30 year US treasuries at under 3%?? Is all the buying the Federal Reserve? It is my humble opinion, Bill Gross is correct, 5% average return per year may be good for the next decade.
correctly said the fed is the only one bying us bonds at these yields. that's why the euro is holding up so well against the buckie. with all these happenings in europe, the $ should have been at least at parity. the printing machines are on fire!
i have not such a big experience like you, but i think that this is the mother of all crises. there is no easy solution, especially when globalization has mixed everything together. i am afraid that the euro will have to disolve and this will be painful for everybody.