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National Bank of Greece SA Spon Message Board

  • ynot966813 ynot966813 Jun 15, 2013 10:42 AM Flag

    Looking back at RBS tender offer

    Yahoo apparently wouldn't let me post the link and kicked the message out, but you can find the results of the RBS tender offer in April- May of 2010 on the RBS website. I think this is the path:

    Home / Investors / Corporate actions / Debt tender and exchange

    The interesting thing is that after the tender was completed, all the preferreds did decline a few points and could have been bought cheaper. Then they all started a recovery and now have been approaching their par value. Dividends are all resumed. E - G and I series will pay at end of June. I did not tender my “L” series, sold it all in February, and bought some back Tuesday and Wednesday, considerably under what I got in February.

    The question then is – Could we expect the same scenario with NBGpA ?? I've been out of it for a while, but could consider re-entering on any decline. Problem is that while I had some confidence that RBS could stage a recovery and have distributable profits, I can't say I have much faith in that happening with NBG any time soon – or if ever.

    Best

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    • RBS, NBG, BAC, C, tender offers, recap, CoCos, etc. The bottom line is that most bank related securities have not performed to investor expectations, particularly during the past 5-7 years. The reasons are various and diverse, but the end result is that many, if not most/all, have experienced losses from bank securities. Hope better days will come, the question is how soon/late.

    • 1. RBS agreed as part of the agreement with the UK to not pay dividends on the discretionary preferred shares for 2 years as part of the bailout agreement;

      2. But, the separation of "Bad" assets from RBS books left RBS with sufficient reserves (distributable profits), and RBS remained profitable; so, RBS had sufficient distributable profits through the period to pay dividends -- as it did on its debt classified preferred. NBG is not in this position, not even close, though, yes, they just might be able to resume dividends quicker than some may think -- and I and others here have posted info related to this.

      3. Your guess is as good as any as to the trading prices of these NBG preferred after the tender. Keep in mind, however, that RBS had many more of these securities and the dividend suspension there was limited to 2 years, this limit was known at the time (there was language in the agreement that may have extended this, but I don't know anyone who read it other than me).

      I've noted here that the history on the RBS preferred should not be used in any manner to address the NBG experience. I'm sticking with that observation.

      good luck,

      jack

      • 2 Replies to luckijack1
      • Yes NBG is far different from RBS, higher macro risk, NPL formation deceleration is key to dividend resumption and mitigation of recap risk as it being the least capitalized greek bank post recap. 2 different animals, but with 5.1MM in equity post recap and 1.7B in net profit before tax annually, they have core earnings to support NPL formation going to 30%....however 40% (as per Blackrock's recap study) and the horse needs to go back to the trough.

        But what is interesting is the capital levers such as Finansbank and south eastern europe stake sales that can boost capital.....which is inherent in its high price to tangible book

        One thing that you can glean from RBS is the price action of the preferreds post expiration of the tender. It dropped 18% soon after expiry only to float back up 4 months later....hmmm.....

      • As always, I appreciate your input Jack. It will be interesting to see where the pricing of the NBGpA goes to after the tender is completed. I do expect it to decline some post the tender, at least over the near term - but then what do I know. If there is any substantial decline I may re-enter, and then again maybe not.

        Best.

    • NBG was making money even up to that big cram down of debt. So, I expect they will be making money going forward. Their profitability started 2 quarters ago. I expect dividends soon since the government will be wanting their dividend soon. We are pari passu with the government preferred.

 
NBG-PA
8.80+0.36(+4.26%)Apr 24 4:00 PMEDT