Take a look at all the Big Oil; they have not made much of a move or are down today; so why shouldn't ECA act any different. Oil market is very volatile, and it does not take much to move it higher (i.e., a small gun-battle in Irag or rumors of Irans missle defense). With this unsettleness coupled with the approach of Hurricane season- I see a move up. Past charts are no reflection on this years trend when you have so many external factors that was not accounted for in the past few years. Most of the time stocks move on income statements, financial announcements, etc... This stock is going up; still plenty of room for growth... I know April and May has been down for energy in the past, but that model will not work this year.
I agree with you. Past performance may not be a good guide to predicting stock movement in the O&G sector.
I use FA for most DD and am not intimate with TA.
As a long term investor, I care little about short term stock price movement.
I do wonder If TA followers might be missing something here though. My understanding is that TA relies on a stock's price to move within a range and that when a stock appears to be at an extreme a trade is made in anticipation of the stock price moving back to within a more normal range. This would make some sense to me in normal cycles. What if things are different now?
If we are now in a new era for global O& G supplies, would it not follow that maybe the whole channel of a stock's price movement steepens. This would seriously undermine any predictions of forward stock price moves using TA IMO.
A wise (and successful) investor once said that the most dangerous thing you can say (or hear) in investing is "it's different this time". This was the catch phrase for all the Tech stock investors.
When some of the Tech companies were showing infinate P/E ratios (loosing money, had no assets, but stock kept in increasing in value at outragous rate) no one was concerned because "it was different this time", "the internet has created a new economy".
I picked this up from Don Coxe, although I doubt he is the first or only on to say this.