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Encana Corporation Message Board

  • bot_feeder bot_feeder Apr 25, 2011 11:06 AM Flag

    I'm in

    Saw a positive comment about ECA in Barrons. The guy seemed pretty savvy.

    Also saw an article on Stockhouse where the guy mentioned ECA as one of his oil/gas picks. He liked Rubicon as his favorite gold stock and it happens to be mine also, so I found his comments credible.

    ECA looks like a pretty decent value. Looking at their most recent presentation, it looks like the property they are pursuing the 50/50 venture on with the Chinese is about 1/7 of their production. If a 50% stake of that is worth 5 billion, then the play itself must be worth about 10 billion. If it is 1/7 of their assets, then that would suggest ECA may be worth about 70 billion, which is a lot more than their current market cap.

    This is admittedly simplistic but at least it provides some sort of a gauge.

    And they have a heck of a lot of property.

    I like Natural Gas in North America because I think the huge disparity between oil and gas prices is an inherently unstable situation that is going to have to move a lot closer to equilibrium.


    I have DVN, EOG, SWN, and UPL. I like those because they are low-cost producers at reasonable stock prices. ECA looks to me to be pretty attractive as well. On UPL's comparison chart of various NG producers in terms of F&D and all-in costs, ECA shows up slighty more expensive than average. However, after listening to their recent conf call, it sounds like they were early into a lot of plays and I tend to believe the UPL chart may be a bit overly pessimistic regarding ECA.

    The guy in Barrons commented that he likes NG because it is depressed right now, but should get stronger as for example there is more widespread use of NG in transportation. That is precisely my rationale for liking NG stocks.

    So, anyway, I'm in.

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    • Reserves are 14 trillion, while the total JV is only 1 trillion. I think they paid $5billion for 1/2 of 1 trillion. Could be wrong.

      Agree with your simplistic post. The price paid by the Chinese has interesting implications for ECA value.

      But I got nothing but combative response. These boards arent what they used to be.

 
ECA
14.00-0.04(-0.28%)Apr 24 4:02 PMEDT