The market might be waiting to see if shale gas gets major regulatory controls. If the epa state and federal dont see a need to ban or severely restrict shale gas fracing eca could spike higher. But while there is doubt as to how risky fracing shale for its gas, especially on ground water eca will not do well.
what about the increased demand for nat gas coming from new oil sands projects? As many of the new oil sands projects come on line nat gas demand has got to climb. I also see nat gas and lng giving coal a run for the thermal electicity generation, and more so now that nuclear out of favor again.