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Encana Corporation Message Board

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  • margin321 margin321 Jun 27, 2012 10:33 AM Flag

    CRIME investigation, good chance of finding a lot more corruption

    I don't like it any more than anyone else. But I am still buying.

    1. The e-mails I have seen quoted are all internal CHK e-mails. CHK bragging that they are having discussions with ECA does not mean they actually had any meaningful idscussions that were improper. CHK is loose as a goose and I can imagine their people putting spin on lots of things in reprots to their superiors. Obviously ECA will have inetrnal documents and also do interviews with everyone who worked on Michigan land aquisition and I believe they will be open about what they find, which may or may not be highly damaging.

    2. I have seen the graphs used by Reuter's to compared the land values at the two land sales auctions. Trouble is the entire natural gas sector had COLLAPSED during the interval. At time A, nat gas was flying and it was widely believed that $10/MCF would be the new LOW. At time B, the worry was that gas would overflow storage and that $2 was a barrier that might be breached. Is it a wonder land sales went off at different prices in the two auctions. You would haev to look at land sales for nat gas leases in other areas at the same two time points.

    3. The fact that ECA and CHK bid in different counties at the second auction is worrisome. But both companies are trying to establish contiguous positions. So the location of bids in the last auction would likely be largely determined by their successful bids in prior land auctions as they were lasgely adding new acres to build concentrated positions.

    Anyway, I am sorry that this happened just as I was carrying out my plan to add to my core ECA position. I have almost hit my target (only a couple hundred to go). It is making these last shares cheaper.

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    • An excellent analysis of the current situation. ECA has been considered one of the more ethical NG companies and, of course, CHK one of the least. Time will tell. I'm holding on but if ECA did violate Sherman Anti-trust provisions then I'll be disappointed in them and I'll drop them like a hot potato regardless of where the stock price goes.

      Sentiment: Hold

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