B, that is what I fear as an NG equity investor. When I posted this on other boards two years ago, most replies stated that I was nutty. The panic has yet to sink in on some of these dry gasssers. They will not play the game of "Shut-in at wellhead", or reduced flowrates. I still think oilier ECA will get it together, however. Divestiture or outright sale of acreage will lower the debt levels
Last summer was incredibly mild weather across N. America. Natty is the "swing" source for generating electric power so demand was down 18% from normal.
The winter before that was also way warmer than usual so demand was down then, too. The fact is that the panic has been there for quite some time. Look at what Encana has done, how much of their good reserves they have sold off. Look at what happened to CHK. Everyone has been tightening their belts and then tightening some more.
The biggest risk, right now, is on the upside....with only 350 rigs still drilling for gas in North America, down from around 1600 in 2007, and with fracked wells drying up much faster than anticipated, the danger is that with even a moderately cold winter, supplies won't hold up and prices will go through the roof ... gas will not be available for any price .....