I'd say the odds are near zero.
If they're going to buy anyone, it would be Davide Campari. They have a strong market leadership in Italy, as well as strong franchises in the U.S. with Wild Turkey and Skyy vodka.
Diageo (DGEAF.PK) has abandoned discussions through which it would have bought Cuervo tequila and will now look to end its 26-year-old arrangement to distribute the brand, igniting speculation that it may search out a substitute. Diageo’s deal to distribute the tequila outside of Mexico is due to expire at the end of June. Analyst Anthony Bucalo at Groupo Santander thinks that Diageo might now aim at Beam (NYSE:BEAM), which owns the tequila brand Sauza.
I'd say slim. DEO would likely put more money behind it's own brands as they are not in direct competition with BEAM like a KO and PEP would be. BEAM has no beers or gin or rum. DEO does. DEO has no bourbon, but can definitely hold its own with scotch, Irish Whiskey and Vodka. They've got wine and other spirits as well. Jack Daniels and the Brown Forman group would be the likely takeout by either DEO or BEAM.
Plus, there is expected future premium baked into BEAM already (DEO would have to severely pay up in order to get control. Whereas there are still dozens if not hundreds of private and independent wineries, beer brewers, and distilleries out there for the taking where there is not premium, but only whatever the backing PE firm or family would take for the brand name and assets.