Did you read the quarterly report? Refining LOST $2,000,000 and PSX only missed by 5 cents/share. What does that mean? The "other" areas of the company made it all (midstream, chemicals, transportation. etc.) Now just imagine what earnings will look like when refining has a good quarter. The "smart money" has driven the price higher on this exact probability. PSX has a ways to run from here.
Refining has always been an up an down business. Because of increasing investments in the 3 areas that you mentioned, refining will become a smaller part of the company. They may also shed a refinery or two. Based on the questions during the conference call, there may be more restructuring down the road to enhance shareholder value. The analysts had all kinds of suggestions. The company's reply was that they are always looking at all options.