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Healthways Inc. Message Board

  • investing_rules investing_rules Jan 8, 2009 10:24 PM Flag

    Guidance for 09 ????

    Did they say anything about their guidance?

    or Did they say they would not give guidance? to me there is a big difference. I would be surprised if no one asked about it???

    Someone who listened to the call please answer.

    I am NOT short I am looking to open a long position but trying to decide on an entry point.

    thanks for any help


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    • No guidance, said this:

      Although we are not prepared to give you 2009 guidance today, we do want to provide you with information regarding some of the dynamics that we are seeing that will affect our 2009 results. We’ve discussed previously the total year impact of domestic commercial contracts going away or reduced in scope, which for the calendar year of 2009 will approximate $70 million. In addition, we recognized approximately $9 million in fiscal 2008 revenues from the Medicare Health Support pilot which are unlikely to be repeated in 2009. So the year over year domestic revenue declines that we know about are approximately $79 million. We do not know yet the effect that unemployment will have on our billed lives, but using a 3% attrition rate would revenues by another $20 million. Based on these assumptions and possibly no organic growth in our customers membership-wise, we could be starting with a decline of approximately $90 to $100 million in run rate revenues, which would need to be filled with new business in order for us to stay flat with 2008 revenue levels.

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