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Air T Inc. Message Board

  • guru_isthebest guru_isthebest Jul 6, 2004 1:22 PM Flag

    Great Time to jump in CALM (bird flu)

    BIRD FLU ALERT JUST OUT

    target 33$

    4th Qtr. earnings report expected July 12.

    4th Qtr. EPS estimated to be .85-.95 vs. last year's .18, bringing estimated full year earnings to 2.87-2.97.

    Very undervalued...TRAILING P/E 6. PEG .50.

    Was added to the Russell 2000 Index Fri., June 25th.

    Shares in float: 4 million
    Shares currently shorted: 4.32 million

    Cal-Maine Foods is the largest producer and distributor of shell eggs in the United States (13% of domestic shell egg sales), selling from CALifornia to MAINE! Highly fragmented industry -- lots of opportunities for more acquisitions (has made 10 since 1989).

    CALM is also the leading producer and marketer of premium-priced SPECIALTY shell eggs (reduced cholesterol, cage free and organic, under Egg-Land's Best and Farmhouse brands).

    4th and lst fiscal quarters (last quarter and current one) are always seasonally the weakest for egg prices. However, CURRENT EGG PRICES ARE STILL RUNNING HIGHER THAN THEY WERE THIS TIME LAST YEAR!!

    CALM's recently-completed facility in Guthrie, Kentucky is now up and running, adding approximately 1,500,000 layer capacity.

    Object of recent well-orchestrated short attack, with current short interest 110% of the float, per Yahoo.

    Proposed secondary--which the shorts were apparently hoping to cover their shorted shares with--has been cancelled.

    High institutional/insider ownership.

    Recent Split = More shares in the float = Greater liquidity = Greater mutual fund participation

    Low-carb, high-protein style of dieting gaining more and more mainstream/medical acceptance (Why? 'cause it WORKS!). In other words, there will be NO slowdown in egg consumption in the foreseeable future.

    CALM produces approx. 98% of the baby chicks required for its laying flock replacement.

    CALM's own feed mills produce and manufacture 97% of feed needed for their flocks.

    Per CALM'S 10-K, historically the Company has tended to have HIGHER profit margins when feed costs are higher, NOT lower! (Higher feed costs encourage some producers--especially marginal onces--to REDUCE production, usually resulting in higher egg prices.)

    Canadian bird flu epidemic (19 million birds slaughtered) means more business/profits for CALM, as do new regulations reducing number of birds per cage. U.S. egg exports to Canada thus far in 2004 are over twice those of 2003 by this same time, while Canadian egg exports to the U.S. have declined substantially year-over-year.

    Good site for checking current and comparing YEAR-OVER-YEAR egg prices:

    www.ams.usda.gov/poultry/mncs/EggReport/USDAEGGMARKETNEWSREPORT.html

    Hold on to your shares, longs! Keep those stops MENTAL! Don't let the MM's take your shares cheap!

    Good luck to all longs...

    Subj: Bird Flu Spreading All Over The World
    By: my_name_eludes_me
    Date: 07/06/04 12:03 pm

    WHO increases monitoring of B.C. bird flu outbreak
    Last Updated Tue, 06 Apr 2004 17:58:42
    TORONTO - Chicken producers were meeting on Tuesday in Ottawa to discuss their next step as the World Health Organization raised its level of vigilance over the bird flu outbreak in Canada.

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AIRT
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