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Acme Packet, Inc. (APKT) Message Board

  • cantdance123 cantdance123 Oct 17, 2011 2:37 PM Flag

    On Oct. 4th, company said they estimate Q3 earnings

    to be between 20 to 22 cents a share. Analysts now are saying 14 cents a share. That's quite a disparity. So who's full of beans? Could or would the company be so far off their own estimate? This has me spinning. Any help out there?

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    • Where are you seeing .14? Got a link?

      AFAIK, the revised # is still @ .22, which came from mgmt. just a few weeks ago. Doubt that'll change and it's already baked in.

      The REAL story, come Thursday, will be an updated status on the ATT purchase order, with more clarity on the total potential of the deal and it's collateral significance to APKT. Plus, updates on biz outside the US and inside the enterprise space. And setting the table for Q4 revenue and expected margins. There may even be a happy surprise thrown in....who knows.

      Should be a FUN CALL! (for the bulls)

    • Yes, there is definately something fishy going on here. I have been a short but I have now switched sides temporarily. This news would be a shorts wet dream normally, but I've learned to read through the lines in the last few years. This news should've sank this stock this morning, but instead it stayed right in line with dow. This stock SHOULD have sank way further into the $37-38 range but it didnt. That and some other factors have led me to believe that although over the next year this is a short, over the next 1-2 months this is a long that is probably going to $50 or higher by Dec. I suspect they have lowered expecatations in an attempt to boost share price when actual numbers come in higher. The history of this stock suggests they do this all the time and its better to lower expectations from .22 to .14 and then get .18 than to keep at .22 and have the actual come in at .18 and watch the stock sink on that day 20% or so.

      • 1 Reply to peilthetraveler
      • Thanks a lot for your thoughts. My initial take was that the company would release no lower than 20 with a longshot possibility of a "surprise" penny or two higher than 22 cents but then that again seemed too unlikely even though they've had surprise ERs in the past. Coming in below 20 may cause a rise but missing your own early estimate doesn't help their image any. If anybody should have a good grasp of what their earnings is it's the company, not a bunch of analysts. On Oct. 4th, they had the raw data and it shouldn't have been that hard to come up with a ballpark estimate. Well, the mystery will be over after the market closes this Thursday. Thanks again.