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Blyth, Inc. Message Board

  • broketherecord broketherecord Sep 10, 2013 3:01 PM Flag

    Very Interesting Article Refarding Potential Short Squeeze

    Are BTH Shorts About To Take A Long Bath?
    Aug 29 2013, 16:18 by: John Gilliam | about: BTH BOOKMARKED / READ LATERBookmarked
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    Remove BookmarkDisclosure: I am long BTH. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

    The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday in its listing of the New York Stock Exchange's short interest data that Blyth's (NYSE: BTH) shares are being shorted more aggressively than any other listed company. The "Short as a Percentage of Float" measure indicates how many of the shares that are actually available to be traded by the public have been sold short. In layman's terms that essentially means that speculators have borrowed shares of Blyth and sold them so they can buy the stock when it trades lower to repay the "borrowed" stock and they have now done it so much that there are not that many left that it can be done with. There are 6.85 million Blyth shares that are available to be traded and the remaining shares are owned by the company's executives. For reference, BTH has had nearly 75% of its free trading shares sold short vs. the current high profile short squeezes of Herbalife (NYSE: HLF) and Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) that occurred with only 32 - 33% of their float sold short. We think the current trading range is a short term aberration and that the timing of this supply/demand imbalance could result in one of the greatest short squeezes in the history of the New York Stock Exchange if several factors come together. Regardless whether some or none of them occur, we believe that a significant move to the upside is imminent and may serve as the catalyst for some of these factors discussed below to occur.

    I learned about Blyth in the course of reading articles related to the Herbalife (NYSE: HLF) saga. While I did not take a position on either side, over the course of 2013 I have found myself constantly clicking over to read the latest in the ongoing soap opera that is the Herbalife short squeeze trade. It has been fascinating on many levels, but for me the most interesting is knowing how Herbalife distributors had to listen to Hedge Fund manager Bill Ackman rip their company to shreds in a public forum while boldly predicting that he will short the stock until it is at zero. While most watchers of this drama are aware that Carl Icahn, George Soros and Robert Chapman bought shares of Herbalife heavily in the days and weeks following Mr. Ackman's presentation, I wondered how many Herbalife distributors were not only energized to sell more to prove Mr. Ackman wrong, but spurred to actually put a little skin of their own into the game by buying HLF shares. It is well known that Mr. Ackman and all those on the short side of the HLF trade have taken a bath on that position and one of the most interesting aspects has been the slow and methodical way the stock has moved higher over many months. While there is really no way for us to know how many Herbalife distributors/sales reps have helped this process along by buying Herbalife shares, anecdotal evidence suggests that they have played some role in helping the short squeeze along and they are laughing all the way to the bank as the resulting short squeeze has left Mr. Ackman and his cronies sitting on losses closing in on 100%.

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    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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