"BS.... Get lost... Learn to read"
So sorry I have the audacity to have a different opinion from you, and doubly sorry for daring to post on this public message board which I didn't realize you were the gatekeeper of.
Seriously though, get over yourself. You can disagree with something without being an a..hole about it. Most adults can manage to do that anyway.
You haven't been on this board in months if ever. The day the stock is up 50 cents you come posting negative BS.
Get lost unless you want to provide some actual data vs your subjective BS.
Learn to read a balance sheet.
And I'm not in Doubt of anything less than $10-$15 in a year
You are wrong on so many levels it's hard to figure out where to start.
As pointed out earlier DeBlob sold 850k on the Wii and now is coming to PS3, Xbox 360 among other units with a much better looking engine and storyline that has critics comparing it to platformers such as Mario Galaxy. If you haven't seen the latest IGN video it's in a thread down below that i posted that shows a vastly superior product to the old one which i have played for myself and enjoyed but see a product that will bring alot of new HD (PS3, Xbox 360) gamers and please the cult followers of the Wii version.
The past is the past and they didn't execute and the shares responded accordingly. Come to present and they have quite a bit better efforts coming out recently and in the future especially in Homefront.
uDraw was an X factor. If it did poorly the stock and Company would've been hammered for it. As it stands it is actually getting more press than even i anticipated not to mention if Nintendo was waiting to see actual buzz and units sold around the unit they should have enough data now to proceed with going forward in their own software to support the unit (Mario Paint). Other publishers may also choose to produce but even if they don't the fact they are projecting this amount of sales automatically appears to give it credibility in the marketplace. Amazon may not be the best indicator but it has to be noted brick and mortar sales vastly underperformed web sales on a % basis this year so perhaps the web traffic is a good indicator they sold enough and 1.35 mil units between online and at stores leaves little product spread between all retailers so i don't know how you can draw any substantial conclusions seeing it at a local store still in stock.
There will be no mismatch between projected earnings and reality. CEO already stated 10Q's of visibility and seems to have taken a UPOD approach.
Last year or the year before that, you could have written out a similar release list. It would have included Saints Row 2, Red Faction, new IP Darksiders, Big Huge Games RPG (since closed down), UFC, de Blob, etc. etc. Only difference is back then they had more cash, which hasn't been disappearing due to "seasonality", it's been disappearing due to continued mis-match between projected earnings and reality.
You mention earnings estimates for next year. Tell me when in the last few years the analysts have NOT massively over-stated THQ's earnings?
uDraw - THQ touted strong Amazon sales and it's been lower in the rankings ever since. Amazon had it at #18 for the month in VG. All my local GME's and all but one local BBY's have it in stock, and THQ already said sell-in was 1M-1.3M, so that's why I call it a modest hit. It's no Wii Fit or Red Dead Redemption. Good luck selling it against competition from Sony and MS getting into the living room more than ever, and next Spring the 3DS will be the hot hardware, not some over-priced piece of plastic with crappy software.
Orioninil pretty much summed it up enough but then add in also the new Montreal studio with Assassin's Creed former talent and creative director Patrice Desilets coming aboard as well and you have good reason to look forward not behind.
They made a few gambles lately with certain IP and investment in uDraw and it's paying off.
The increase in interest in the stock is related to this but still lagging indicator of where the stock is going.
I pity the fool that is betting against THQ. No real overhead resistance until $6.50's and then after that until a retest of $8.30-$9.00's that it made in June of 2009.
Minus the cash position tell me that THQ isn't in better shape now than it was in June of 2009? They have removed quite a bit of uncertainty lately and replaced it with alot of future hope.
Just wait till March when Homefront is around and this move will pale in comparison.
This is still the calm period and just a little catch up after major consolidation. The stock spent 10 weeks between $4ish and $4.80's and then broke out in the last few weeks to near $6.oo. It's been a nice orderly rise on good volume.
Fair value to me would be 1X future estimated sales. With the way things are recovering, Udraw, Homefront coming, DeBlob 2 coming, UFC license locked up, etc. etc., the company should be able to do about 1 billion in sales next year. So that would put us at about $15 per share.
These are just estimates and my opinion. We have to remember that the stock was $25 plus just a couple years ago. $15 is not asking too much. The company is leaner, meaner, and doing all the right things.
The stock was $29.94 for a high for the month of 12/31/07 so just about $24.00 higher than what it trades for today and hit an all-time high in the month ending April 2007 of $36.67. Granted the whole sector minus ATVI has taken it on the chin good since that point but the pendulum swung so far in the other direction that at these levels given the sucess of current franchises and 10 Q's of future visibility plus exceeding estimates with uDraw you can see why people here say $15 isn't a stretch.
If the Company was to entertain a fair price i wouldn't see how they couldn't at least consider the offer. I've seen a presentation involving THQ where they were specifically asking about what happens in a change of control (buyout) of the Company with respect to a license or something else pertinent and they answered it with no sort of strings attached that they wouldn't consider an offer.
The sector has been due for more consolidation and the reason alot of publishers are turning to social media plays and not the publishers is perceived future revenues instead of solid future revenues based on current trends.
THQ not only has social media in its arsenal with Iphone apps/games but also has covered alot of ground that other publishers would surely see alot of value. No CEO from another company is going to put their cards out there for everyone to see and outright say that they want to buy THQ but if any of them are actively seeking acquistions as they've claimed for a while now how can you not look at what THQ is and has been doing in the last 6-12 months and not think that they would be highly accretive to your future earnings and their slate of IP isn't among the best in the industry.
This price is far from fair where it currently trades and that should be enough for us to propel high regardless of entertaining any bid(s).