Everyone knows the stock delisting thing, it will either be extended or not. No surprise when it gets extended.
Some know BF has to buy shares. When he does, it won't be a surprise to those who knew he had to. THQ will parade the buying out like a painted mule but we know it is what it is and nothing more.
Quarter numbers - meh. We know they will not be spectacular. They won't blow out estimates, heck, they may not meet them! But we know that.
Cash at end of quarter - hopefully $25 million like they say THQ will have. But no real surprises here, it's not like they will say they have found $50m under a cushion.
So, basically THQ has nothing surprising going on nor any catalysts to propel them, except Darksiders II. Also, Darksiders II can ruin them. If Darksiders II can not turn a profit, THQ has no money left.
You can say, "What about the bank loan they can pull from?" - OK, great, they can borrow money, but for waiting for what? What major release will be coming up after June 29th that can save THQ? South Park? I don't believe so. It could be a fun game and be a good 500k-750k seller, but no major hit. WWE 13? Look at WWE 12, it is breaking even and you can't think WWE 13 will be much different, if not worse. So June 29th until when for a major release? Next calendar year?
It is all about Darksiders II here. It is the only unknown left. Watch for THQ to throw everything they have behind it. Watch for a massive push at E3 - commercials in volume like we saw for Homefront, if not more. They will spend all they have and it will increase the need for Darksiders II to be a massive hit. If it isn't THQ will have used most, if not all, of their money. No hit, THQ is done.
Darksiders II is looking good so far. The hands-on previews have been very good and it is finally on the VGChartz for presales with 14 weeks to go. If it can get to 500k before release (at 71k+ now), it may have a shot at 2-4m units sold by the end of 2nd quarter.
Only that will keep THQ alive.
OK, OK, barring a takeover or buyout, if that thinking helps us all in fantasy land. ;)
Just my 2 cents.
Tang you make very good points indeed. My big question is why there is no insider buying taking place now? What is that they are working on that is considered insider information? Once we have that answered with your 2 cents we have a full dollar!
Well, with the layoffs and changing the MMO, that had to be in the board room meetings for a little while so they couldn't make purchases with that information. They probably can't make purchases right now because the news was just released. In maybe a week after the news is far enough in the past, hopefully there is a "window" of time before any new blackout begins before getting close to releasing the quarter numbers.
Trick is numbers could be released in early May, so if you figure he can't buy 2 weeks before or after that date and probably can't within a few days of today's news, his only window is April 9th - 13th.
That is, of course, unless there is a "window" after the quarter closes until the numbers are released, then BF may be hosed and can't get his shares in time. We shall see!
darksiders II good points that it is costing money... but that is quite obvious and a good game costs money... it will at least break even IMO based on prior sales and the fan following even though not huge.
WWE will exceed above break-even point and I disagree with what you are saying.. bring me exact vg charts figures with breakouts and exact total costs for releasing the game and then we'll talk.
The next ufc and the next wwe alone will be helpful to thq and UFC is on stage to make profit.
South park? I think this game may have even been scaled back on development as a lower priority... so is a non-issue and OBVIOUSLY nobody here would think a south park game would save the equity in this company. BUT did you forget about metro last light? Did you forget about the next warhammer? Did you forget about the new trademark 1666... there are other things coming... and the company is making moves... to restructure and bring costs down so smaller profits will hit home harder and breakeven will keep the company running... as long as the costs reduce to a point where we can come close to positive earnings again...
I agree with your post. It does feel as if it may be a do-or-die situation fro THQ. WHile I don't necessarily agree that it may lead to BK, I do feel it may seriously hamper any recovery hopes.