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THQ AŞ Message Board

  • john19961 john19961 Nov 5, 1998 8:14 PM Flag

    Everyone needs to relax

    You guys probably need to relax a little. I can't
    believe you're this uptight after the significant run-up.
    If anyone should be uptight, I should ;) . . but
    anyways. . the information I posted earlier were not
    false. And to try and add some credibility to
    my
    posts, I did include Gamelord's Website. Revenge may be
    selling where you live, but I did find a "good" number of
    games still available. Of course, I did not find out
    whether they had ordered
    1,000 and only had 50 left. I
    probably should. Having said that. . here is my Top-Down
    (Negative) View of THQI

    1. The U.S. Economy is
    projected to slow down. J.P. Morgan has even forecasted a
    recession.A slowdown would hurt some industries worse than
    others. I think that if people had to pick between paying
    rent and buying a video game, they would pay rent.
    That is just my opinion.
    2. Wrestling has been
    incredibly strong. My OPINION again is that
    Wrestling
    may have peaked with Acclaim and ERTS getting into
    the game. Even if it has not peaked, competition next
    year and beyond will be fierce.
    3. Console
    transition will hurt every game maker next year.
    4. With
    the market where it is (8900+), the upside for the
    market is very limited. Maybe a test of 9400. But the
    downside test to 7400 is a possibility. Again just my
    opinion.
    5. A lot of the earning expectations have a LOT of
    positives in the FUTURE built in. If the future turns out
    to be less rosy,
    the downside risk may be
    realized. Again, just my opinion.
    6. Past performance is
    no guarantee of future results.

    All of the
    above points are just what I think and feel about this
    market and THQI. I may be proven wrong in time. But I
    think this board can be improved greatly if we can all
    have an intelligent discussion of THQI rather than
    just threaten the shorters or say how Revenge is sold
    out EVERYWHERE.

    John1996

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    • John19961: I still say you're short -- albeit not
      a cranky one. In response to your two posts:


      You now have confirmation that (even you must admit)
      proves Revenge is selling well. Go to that same
      www.gamelord.com site referenced in your post. Today, REVENGE IS
      LISTED AS THE #1 SELLING GAME. Why didn't you bring this
      to our attention? Apparently, Revenge simply hadn't
      been in long enough to make it on yesterday's chart.
      This refutes many of your points about the diminishing
      demand for wrestling titles. With Revenge coming on the
      heels of Warzone, it would not be possible for this
      game to be #1 if wrestling's appeal were
      fading.

      As for some of your other points: (A) If history
      repeats itself, the transition in console platforms will
      not hurt game makers next year. Game makers are not
      affected until the year after the transition begins. Thus,
      next year will again be robust; and (B) Sure,
      wrestling competition will be fierce when ERTS gets the WCW
      license. But it was fierce this year. Acclaim's Warzone
      got great reviews and sold tremendously, but Revenge
      is still #1 right now. Plus, we've got a leg up.
      ERTS has never done a wrestling game
      before.

      Your remaining points were all projections of doom and
      gloom for the U.S. economy or the stock market in
      general. While these may prove accurate (time will tell),
      they could have been posted on any board. They do not
      add up to any reason why an investment in THQ is bad,
      as opposed to an investment in virtually any other
      stock.

      I'm not a THQ super bull right now, but I know scare
      tactics when I see them.

      • 2 Replies to TSeltzer
      • for the Gamelord update. When I checked on 11/4,
        Revenge was not on the top 5. But on 11/5, I think it had
        been updated to reflect it. Nonetheless, with the
        market sitting near 9000, and the economy projected to
        slow down next year, and with the rest of the world
        except europe in a Recession or a depression, I think
        stthe market is at a top. . and will fall to maybe 7400
        to retest the lows of the year. Why do you think the
        Feb has lowered interest rates twice this year,
        because they are afraid of a recession next year. There
        are two ways to look at the 11/17 meetin. If the Fed
        lowers rates, the market will go down because it has
        already built the lower rate in, and will think the Fed
        thinks the economy is worse than the market would
        suggest. If the Fed does not lower rates, the market will
        fall to retest the lows of 7400. The Fed may not lower
        rates because the signs of a slowing economy is
        conflicting and the market is a little too frothy right now.
        Look, I was long 200% as of last week, and have gone
        150% Short and 50% Long. If you look at the indices,
        they are racking up gains, but the breadth is not
        incredible. Everyone is talking about how small caps are such
        a value, but all bets are off if the economy slips
        into a recession since small caps will be hurt the
        worst by a recession.

        As far as wrestling
        peaking and console game sales peaking next year, that is
        more of a gut instinct. I admit I may be
        wrong.

        John1996

      • It is a bargain there.......Why this stock has these massive
        corrections is beyond me...Fear and greed at work.

    • IBD Thursday, Nov 5, 1998..

      The ongoing
      strength of the economy should give retailers their best
      holiday sales since '94 says the National Retail
      Foundation. An NRF survey found consumers expect to spend
      $814 average--4.5% more than last year. Actual
      spending could be even higher, says the NRF, since
      consumers tend to underestimate what they'll
      spend.


      Hey John, what do mean wrestling has peaked? Governer
      now, president next. There are enough wrasslers to go
      around along with wrassling fanatics.