You guys probably need to relax a little. I can't believe you're this uptight after the significant run-up. If anyone should be uptight, I should ;) . . but anyways. . the information I posted earlier were not false. And to try and add some credibility to my posts, I did include Gamelord's Website. Revenge may be selling where you live, but I did find a "good" number of games still available. Of course, I did not find out whether they had ordered 1,000 and only had 50 left. I probably should. Having said that. . here is my Top-Down (Negative) View of THQI
1. The U.S. Economy is projected to slow down. J.P. Morgan has even forecasted a recession.A slowdown would hurt some industries worse than others. I think that if people had to pick between paying rent and buying a video game, they would pay rent. That is just my opinion. 2. Wrestling has been incredibly strong. My OPINION again is that Wrestling may have peaked with Acclaim and ERTS getting into the game. Even if it has not peaked, competition next year and beyond will be fierce. 3. Console transition will hurt every game maker next year. 4. With the market where it is (8900+), the upside for the market is very limited. Maybe a test of 9400. But the downside test to 7400 is a possibility. Again just my opinion. 5. A lot of the earning expectations have a LOT of positives in the FUTURE built in. If the future turns out to be less rosy, the downside risk may be realized. Again, just my opinion. 6. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
All of the above points are just what I think and feel about this market and THQI. I may be proven wrong in time. But I think this board can be improved greatly if we can all have an intelligent discussion of THQI rather than just threaten the shorters or say how Revenge is sold out EVERYWHERE.
John19961: I still say you're short -- albeit not a cranky one. In response to your two posts:
You now have confirmation that (even you must admit) proves Revenge is selling well. Go to that same www.gamelord.com site referenced in your post. Today, REVENGE IS LISTED AS THE #1 SELLING GAME. Why didn't you bring this to our attention? Apparently, Revenge simply hadn't been in long enough to make it on yesterday's chart. This refutes many of your points about the diminishing demand for wrestling titles. With Revenge coming on the heels of Warzone, it would not be possible for this game to be #1 if wrestling's appeal were fading.
As for some of your other points: (A) If history repeats itself, the transition in console platforms will not hurt game makers next year. Game makers are not affected until the year after the transition begins. Thus, next year will again be robust; and (B) Sure, wrestling competition will be fierce when ERTS gets the WCW license. But it was fierce this year. Acclaim's Warzone got great reviews and sold tremendously, but Revenge is still #1 right now. Plus, we've got a leg up. ERTS has never done a wrestling game before.
Your remaining points were all projections of doom and gloom for the U.S. economy or the stock market in general. While these may prove accurate (time will tell), they could have been posted on any board. They do not add up to any reason why an investment in THQ is bad, as opposed to an investment in virtually any other stock.
I'm not a THQ super bull right now, but I know scare tactics when I see them.
for the Gamelord update. When I checked on 11/4, Revenge was not on the top 5. But on 11/5, I think it had been updated to reflect it. Nonetheless, with the market sitting near 9000, and the economy projected to slow down next year, and with the rest of the world except europe in a Recession or a depression, I think stthe market is at a top. . and will fall to maybe 7400 to retest the lows of the year. Why do you think the Feb has lowered interest rates twice this year, because they are afraid of a recession next year. There are two ways to look at the 11/17 meetin. If the Fed lowers rates, the market will go down because it has already built the lower rate in, and will think the Fed thinks the economy is worse than the market would suggest. If the Fed does not lower rates, the market will fall to retest the lows of 7400. The Fed may not lower rates because the signs of a slowing economy is conflicting and the market is a little too frothy right now. Look, I was long 200% as of last week, and have gone 150% Short and 50% Long. If you look at the indices, they are racking up gains, but the breadth is not incredible. Everyone is talking about how small caps are such a value, but all bets are off if the economy slips into a recession since small caps will be hurt the worst by a recession.
As far as wrestling peaking and console game sales peaking next year, that is more of a gut instinct. I admit I may be wrong.
The ongoing strength of the economy should give retailers their best holiday sales since '94 says the National Retail Foundation. An NRF survey found consumers expect to spend $814 average--4.5% more than last year. Actual spending could be even higher, says the NRF, since consumers tend to underestimate what they'll spend.
Hey John, what do mean wrestling has peaked? Governer now, president next. There are enough wrasslers to go around along with wrassling fanatics.