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Redwood Trust, Inc. Message Board

  • MINCE38 MINCE38 Nov 20, 2004 2:13 AM Flag

    special dividend?

    Can someone explain to me why the stock has declined around $5 last 5 days with an announcement of a $5 special divvy. How is that possible????


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    • The stock declined for the following reasons:

      1. People expected a HIGHER special div., and bailed out when they didn't get it.

      1A. The stock had gone up too much, for the time being, and therefore dropped back. Some people made a lot of money. Some lost.

      1B. People had bought the stock, to begin with, so they could sell it again, not for the div. They decided it was time to sell. This in turn led to a chain reaction that forced the price down.

      2. Greenspan ran his mouth. Lots of scaredy cats were already set to panic so they bailed even before he did.

      2A. The entire market went down, did you notice? It carries stuff like this stock with it. It's even worse when "interest rate sensitive stocks" go down. That can send all the lemmings over the cliff, allowing sane people to buy this stock cheap.

      3. Random variation.

      3A. Stocks go down because they go down. See above re various "because some idiots sold, it drove the price down, causing other idiots to panic, which in turn ...."

      4. I bought mine. <sigh> BAD timeing. No, stocks don't always go to blazes just because I bought in. Ditto for other people. It just seems that way. Then some of THOSE people bail out at a loss and see 3A.

      Meow but only for now.

      • 2 Replies to meowinvestor
      • You didn't mention the Merrill Lynch downgrade.

        The stock declined badly when it was announced.

      • I bought at about this level so I am at break even right now but if it goes lower I might pick up some more shares. Really you should be buying this and other RIETs for the Divy and not to see it go up 50 points in one day. If you want to day trade please go to the JDSU, GOOG, or SIRI board. This stock should give you income to either A) buy more and get a bigger Divy B) Use the Divy to buy other stocks that will go up faster.
        Either way I am in it for the long haul, with a fat special divy and a nice quarterly I will hold for awhile.

        If anyone has any other stocks that have nice div's like RWT please post so I can look at.


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