While that article is negative, it does bring up many negative issues about the company that are worth looking at. I like this stock quite a bit and a negative article helps get more at even better prices without anything changing in the underlying fundamentals. Value guys love this stock, I love this stock. There are certainly risks, but the chance of RWT going under or lowering its dividend this year seems unlikely. One article does not change anything and it is pretty obvious that this article is what sparked the selling.
I think it is pretty certain that the special dividend is not going to be paid this year however.. Hopefully it can survive and start paying that again in the next 2-3 years - that is why I am buying this thing here.
I think Greg Weston has been rather clearly shown to be a short seller who publishes negative articles on target companies to profit from the drop in price. So, everything he publishes has to be seen in that light including the article on RWT.
He does make one valid point in the article, And that is that the mortgage resets have led to a drop in home prices and writedowns in the value of mortgage securities. But, that was not new information. It was discussed openly by RWT management. Weston says these will accelerate, based largely on his intuition and forecasts. But, as the amount of resets continues to drop from the peak amount in March 2008, it would seem more likely that these writedowns will decelerate.
The other points he makes are based on self serving guesses, judgements and inuendo, not fact.
RWT will clearly have more writedowns. However, to contemplate bankruptcy or a major collapse for a company with $257 million in cash, no leverage, controlled overhead expenses, and experienced senior management who have significant stock ownership with a recent record of buying more, is a real reach.
RWT will continue to pay the regular $3.00 per share dividend. They have said that in their reports. This alone justifies a much higher valuation. And, the new income producing investments that RWT is making will give them the cash flow to begin, once again, paying special dividends.