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PetroLogistics LP Message Board

  • quantuon quantuon Jan 6, 2013 1:51 PM Flag

    Does anyone care?

    about the futures market and what its pricing. Not very liquid market but points to 85c for MB propane and 68c for PGP for Q1....looks like a huge div increase coming then....

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Where do you get prices for PGP?

      Today EPD announced that its planned PDH facility, which is scheduled to go on line in 2015 has its production fully contracted, and that EPD is considered building a second facility. So it would seem to validate the business.

      Of course, PDH has not announced an end to its unscheduled shut down that was caused by a compressor problem. It was supposed to last 3 weeks, which is up today. I haven't seen any announcement of a re-start.

      And PDH faces the termination of its contract with a customer that buys 18% of its production. Hopefully, they can negotiate pricing so the termination never happens, but it's not a great sign.

      And thanks for any help you can give on the PGP pricing question.

      • 1 Reply to jrad52
      • pricing is off the CME...can't post a link...contracts are not very liquid and probably susceptible to a bit of pushing around...but indications are pricing is improving, no doubt partly on the back of China demand. I don't believe PDH has to release a statement saying the plant is restarted. Im wasn't looking for one. INEOS needed to put in the termination notice (for end of 2013) in case negotiations fail...how do u know its on price? Could be many other factors although INEOS known to play pretty hard ball...doesn't change the fact that no cracker is making PGP, propane is all over the coast (with more coming), and PGP stocks are light....we'll see a 60c div in Q1 on the back of a 30c in Q4. That will give 1.5 in the rear-view mirror for a year and push this into high-teens...i though we'd get a pullback today with market and look to buy some more....

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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