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PetroLogistics LP Message Board

  • jrad52 jrad52 Feb 5, 2013 7:54 PM Flag

    Earnings tomorrow night

    I'm not expecting great GAAP earnings for the Q because of (1) the continuing propane swaps loss which is essentially being funded by PDH's sponsor but which continues to be booked by PDH and (2) the shutdown and the probable costs PDH accrued for it. But I am expecting a decent cash flow Q and hopefully some color on 2013 pricing.

    In the IPO, PDH and its sponsor sold 35 million units to the public. There is one 5% public shareholder - the Steadfast Funds, which own 8.3 million units as of 1/18. Yahoo stats shows a few other fund families with less than 5% holdings. So the public float is probably around 25 million units. Which makes recent daily volume really impressive. From August through December, average volume was less than 300,000 units per day. Since January 22, volume has averaged over 1.7 million per day, so you would think someone is buying in. At least, that's what I'm hoping.

    The lock-up period ended in November, but any public sales of units would require a reg statement which hasn't been filed, so I can't think the volume is the sponsor dumping units.

    Let's hope for good news tomorrow.

    FWIW

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    • Distribution only 0.28, so still way below the original estimate of 0.45.

      • 2 Replies to lizahuang54321
      • Are you talking about the original estimate based on a pro-rated dist. back in Q2? This distribution varies and I think general consensus was 27-30 for the quarter depending on impact of plant outage...i'd say it was in line...comments about Jan spread of 50 which implies a 70-75c dist for Q1 is more telling....

      • I wans't expecting much more than 30 cents, so the 28 cents doesn't bother me. The release has lots of good news about the price of propylene and the propylene/propane spread in January, though. The spread was 31 cents for the Q and that resulted in a distribution of 28 cents; in January the spread increased to 49 cents, a 60% increase. If that holds, the distribution should grow quite a bit this year. I hope they give some more color on this on the call, but I'm a happy camper right now.

        I haven't read the release in detail yet, and don't know if they held back any cash for the shutdown. I would guess that cost a few cents on the distribution.

    • As an old crusty sales guy I knew use to say:

      "There's a white glove under this stock"

      fwiw, insiders can sell average weekly volume over last 4 weeks in any 3month period...so either we've got a real buyer or they are churning to dump 10mn shares....Im guessing the former, PGP still on fuego

      • 1 Reply to quantuon
      • My problem with the rule 144 sales possibility is that the 3 major sponsors/holders all filed 13Ds back in June to report their ownership. They are required to update the filings within 10 days of any changes, I thought. I have no idea of the penalty for late filing, but if they were selling anything significant in the last 3 weeks, I would think they would have filed by now. I understand there are some financing transactions (putting up their units as collateral for a loan, where the lender can sell the shares) that might not get reported. So I can't be sure. Nor can I understand the obvious churning, no matter who is doing the selling.

        FWIW.

 

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