I don't think so. The outage is just another in a long string of gltiches at the facility. So far this year, the plant was down for 9 days at the start of the year (21 days overall, including December), another closing in late April that was disclosed on the earnings call without saying how long it lasted, and now this newest problem which hopefully will only last 2 weeks. And then there's the upcoming turnaround in October when the plant will be down 28 days. I just wish that with the latest shutdown announcement, PDH had said that some of this work would shorten the turnaround, but they didn't.
PDH is now estimating Q2 production will be 260 MM pounds. In Q2 2012, production was 320 MM pounds. With the lower spread and lower productivity, the Q2 distribution will be far lower than I originally thought. I think we're back to 25 cents, maybe. And I haven't followed the spread since the company said (on the call) that it would be lower this Q.
I don't know if the technology is untested or if management cuts corners on maintenance, or what, but if there's any bounce from today's levels, I'm gone.
i dumped out my last piece this AM...have to agree with you...25c sounds about right when expectations were for 35 steady state. Now one has to consider this an annual event min. so seems like SS dist is more like a buck 20 and prob deserves a 10% yield so 12 is closer to fair but could trade under imo....sad, its looking more and more like another classic PE dump