Very insightfull comments shotgug12, i have been
thinking the same thing for a while. Anybody out there
remember a few years back to a Ga bank (C&S) and Va bank
(Soveran) merger????? If this deal with CF stumbles post
conversion, somebody had better be checking those dark
To your point, IMAbanker, I expect that this deal
contains a poison pill that would be too bitter for WB to
take. The only way that this deal will not go through
is if STI and CF walk away from the table; however I
doubt that will occur since CF management has been set
up to personally benefit from a change of control
(some to the tune of 8 figures). Should these two
decide to uncouple, I would expect that a large out of
market player would swoop in, offer a price less than
that of STI-CF, and promise to spill a great deal of
blood in the process. These two are not alone in the
woods. There are several sets of hungry eyes watching
..... and waiting ..... Another scenario to consider is
for a large financial to grab them both
simultaneously in this depressed market and to once again
promise to significantly cut bodies in the home market of
STI, as well as CF. Have you done your homework? Who
is sitting on a large pot of capital? Who owns the
eyes that lurk in the dark shadows?
I thinking that WB would not consider an attempt
to go after CF. Seeing what STI stock has done after
the announcement, and the fact that CF branches are
in close proximity to WB's recently acquired Central
Fidelity, it doesn't seem logical. WB would pay out the
nose for a bank that would have significant overlap
leading to divesture of branches/deposits.
don't expect anything to stand in the way of this deal
closing short of the two banks changing thier minds, and
how likely is that?
Long term, I think you're right. The market
perception of STI has changed from a target only to a
player, therefore the horrible sell off. Compare PE
ratios of acquirers like Nations Bank and STI still
looks expensive. I continue to feel STI will be the
eventual target of acquisition, otherwise we'll have to
settle for so so earnings growth of 11% - 13%.
I could be wrong (I've been wrong before) but I
don't think one can look at these first few weeks as an
indication on the long term implication of the deal. As a CF
stockholder, it makes no difference ( for those of us in this
for the long haul) what the stock is today - but what
it is in December when the ".96 switch" occurs.
Don't forget the Dow took a heck of a hit this week.
You got to factor that in somewhere. Now if you're in
CF and/or STI for the short haul - the quick buck -
Cut your losses and run.
this stock is down almost 20 per share in less
than a month and has continued to slide even with the
ml recommendation. looks like dead maney for 2 to 3
years before the come back. the market did not like the
cf deal and has slod off this stock. perhaps the
selloff will kill this deal???
I was with CF for 28 years, we gained the
experience of Consolations
and after getting over the
growing pains, we developed some very
in mergers,etc. Management of both CF and STI
have had a long on going relationship. I think good
come of this merger.
Both CF and STI
are strong in Trust Departments, but also
a good commercial and comsumer areas, when combined
made for a good
working relationship within the
banks. This good working relation
ship is necessary
for success. Both banks have proved that.
have "weathered" the competation and stayed strong in
markets. I think it will be interesting to watch what
Since Rumors abound on this message board:
rumor in Eastern VA indicate that STI wants Crestar (at
least in part) because CF is very good performing
acquisitions - having bought (and consolidated) several banks
in the last 5-6 years. STI has been out of the major
acquisition business for ten years. The theory continues that
once CF is under the STI umbrella, Mr. Humann will
utilize this talent from the North to acquire and
consolidate additional banks in the future.