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First Cash Financial Services Inc. Message Board

  • rodrobison rodrobison Jan 1, 2006 8:56 PM Flag

    Ford Equity Research

    Outperformance Expected
    Recommendation Decision: Buy
    Ford�s Buy recommendation on First Cash
    Financial Services is the result of our systematic
    analysis of three basic characteristics: changes in
    earnings growth, relative valuation, and price
    momentum. For a stock to be rated in either the
    buy or sell category, we require a clear signal from
    these factors. A clear signal can be generated by a
    very positive or very negative rating in as few as one
    of the identified measures. Once a buy or sell
    rating is triggered, notable deterioration (or
    improvement in the case of a sell rating) in one or
    more factors can cause the rating to change
    materially. Consequently, simple averaging of the
    factors may not always add up to match the overall

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    • If I were you, I would look into buying at least a little gold, especially considering the current shape of the economy. It may wobble a little in price every now and then, but overall world wide demand is HUGE!. I'm an old timer and I can remember when it was $35 an ounce. It's expensive now, but IMHO it still has a long way to go.


    • Tex,

      If you e-mail me I'll send you any reports you want. They're a biatch to copy paste in a couple boxes here and I don't really have anywhere to put them up on the web.

      KMP probably wouldn't be my top pick of the MLPs but it is one I own. It has a very steady track record of increasing its distributions and looks like it might slow down a little this year, but still will up it 5 to 8%. Management is supposed to be best in biz. My other issue with it is the General Partner gets 50% of distributable cash flow. EPD's is capped at 25% and that basically means that it is a little easier for it to beef up its distribution to the little guys like me.

    • Glad to see you mention those tickers euro trash, I actually gave KMP a hard look when I first started investing. At the time I was saying to myself, "how can it keep that up forever" and instead bought Nortel(NT) which went on to annouce the accounting scandal shortly after... 2nd worst trade I ever made.

      I'll be happy to hear your opinion on them or view one of those reports of KMP.

      Also TFV: small cap equities are my largest holdings. Namely BKRS.

    • I took profits today actually, a little less than half of my position. But I bought CDIS and also ACAS.

    • when you make a loan on gold you dont get to own it for at least 2 months (gold has a lowere default rate then other items 15-20%) could be longer if they make extenisions or renewals on the loan. so there is a slower movenent on pawn loans outstanding vs/price of gold. look over the past year the pawn loan balances are going up but slowly.

    • There is a learning curve with any investment class. During my first two years of learning to trade stocks I have been stopped out with a loss right before a stock took off, was the victim of fraudulent financial reporting, sold stocks with modest gains which 6-9 months later would have turned out to be doubles, sold stocks with losses due to negative investor sentiment toward a particular sector which turned a few months later, sold stocks due to technical resistance which broke through several weeks later, etc. Those mistakes were costly but hopefully I have learned from my many mistakes so that going forward my investment returns will be attractive.

      I am not attracted to miserly bond yields and have no knowledge of commodities. Option prices are extremely volatile and more than a function of merely the underlying stock or index. With options, someone is on the other side of the trade and you can bet the prices are in favor of the option writer. The options learning curve can be extremely expensive and paper trading options is a lot different than the real thing.

      While my FCFS position is much smaller than it was Jan 1, it is still among my top ten holdings. I believe it is still a solid long-term investment, but the year-ahead upside (price target $40) is more modest than when FCFS was in the low to mid-20s.

    • You mentioned REM in your original mesage. Are you planning on taking your profits there also?

    • When I have to buy funds (like in my 401k), I choose the lowest fee high risk stock fund usually. For example, the best I can buy in my current 401k is DFA US Small Cap (sorry don't know the ticker). I avoid bond funds because I think they more subject to interest rate risk than individual bonds...if interest rates skyrocket, a bond fund is going to lose a ton of value, whereas I can just choose to hold a bond if I feel like taking the loss. Maybe it's technically the same loss...

      However, in my 401k, I'm never offered a junk bond fund, and I would say that does sound more appealing. So the RITFX that you sent is very intriguing. Very low expense ratio, which I like, and high risk, potentially high return.

      Hmmm...glad you sent out this post, I hadn't really thought about junk bond funds before. I still don't have interest in investment grade bond funds, but something like RITFX looks intriguing.

      But I'd still maybe rather just find my own individual junk bonds and roll the dice myself...

      So if you're not looking for short term gains, what is driving you away from long term small cap equities?

    • Tex,

      I think we could hit a little dip soon and while energy doesn't look really undervalued, I've stumbled across some investments that look attractive. They're mostly pipeline companies that transport oil, nat gas, etc. Slow growing steady businesses that pay out 6-7% (even 8 or 9) in distributions. They're not exactly in the same vein as FCFS, but many are steady growers that continually up their distributions. Look into ETP, EPD, KMP, APL, MMP, ARLP, etc. Citigroup covers most of them pretty extensively and a number of the boards for them on yahoo are very informative.

      If you, or anyone else is interested and doesn't have access to Citigroup, Morningstar, or S&P reports on some of these companies...let me know.

    • Thanks for you advice TFV, but I have been investing for longer than 4 months, a little more than 2 years actually.

      Also I'm not looking for short term gains. I'm looking for a longer term bond/treasury type mutual fund or ETF with modest returns that may prove to be undervalued. A fund like TIP to RITFX. What cha think?

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